{
 "site": "nflanalytic.com",
 "model": "walk-forward Elo (K=20, HFA=48, MOV multiplier, 1/3 preseason regression)",
 "season": 2026,
 "weeks": {
  "1": [
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_NE_SEA",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-09",
    "weekday": "Wednesday",
    "gametime": "20:20",
    "away": "NE",
    "home": "SEA",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1592.8,
    "elo_home": 1674.6,
    "p_home": 0.6785,
    "pick": "SEA",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_SF_LA",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-10",
    "weekday": "Thursday",
    "gametime": "20:35",
    "away": "SF",
    "home": "LA",
    "neutral": true,
    "elo_away": 1559.4,
    "elo_home": 1614.7,
    "p_home": 0.5789,
    "pick": "LA",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_ATL_PIT",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "13:00",
    "away": "ATL",
    "home": "PIT",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1470.3,
    "elo_home": 1516.0,
    "p_home": 0.6317,
    "pick": "PIT",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_BAL_IND",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "13:00",
    "away": "BAL",
    "home": "IND",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1553.4,
    "elo_home": 1469.4,
    "p_home": 0.4484,
    "pick": "BAL",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_BUF_HOU",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "13:00",
    "away": "BUF",
    "home": "HOU",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1615.9,
    "elo_home": 1605.6,
    "p_home": 0.554,
    "pick": "HOU",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_CHI_CAR",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "13:00",
    "away": "CHI",
    "home": "CAR",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1528.7,
    "elo_home": 1426.3,
    "p_home": 0.4223,
    "pick": "CHI",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_CLE_JAX",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "13:00",
    "away": "CLE",
    "home": "JAX",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1419.9,
    "elo_home": 1565.9,
    "p_home": 0.7534,
    "pick": "JAX",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_NO_DET",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "13:00",
    "away": "NO",
    "home": "DET",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1435.3,
    "elo_home": 1563.9,
    "p_home": 0.7343,
    "pick": "DET",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_NYJ_TEN",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "13:00",
    "away": "NYJ",
    "home": "TEN",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1361.5,
    "elo_home": 1349.8,
    "p_home": 0.5519,
    "pick": "TEN",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_TB_CIN",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "13:00",
    "away": "TB",
    "home": "CIN",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1488.4,
    "elo_home": 1480.4,
    "p_home": 0.5573,
    "pick": "CIN",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_ARI_LAC",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "16:25",
    "away": "ARI",
    "home": "LAC",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1394.4,
    "elo_home": 1530.9,
    "p_home": 0.7431,
    "pick": "LAC",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_GB_MIN",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "16:25",
    "away": "GB",
    "home": "MIN",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1535.9,
    "elo_home": 1556.1,
    "p_home": 0.597,
    "pick": "MIN",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_MIA_LV",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "16:25",
    "away": "MIA",
    "home": "LV",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1459.1,
    "elo_home": 1351.0,
    "p_home": 0.4143,
    "pick": "MIA",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_WAS_PHI",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "16:25",
    "away": "WAS",
    "home": "PHI",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1458.2,
    "elo_home": 1581.2,
    "p_home": 0.728,
    "pick": "PHI",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_DAL_NYG",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-13",
    "weekday": "Sunday",
    "gametime": "20:20",
    "away": "DAL",
    "home": "NYG",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1460.7,
    "elo_home": 1419.3,
    "p_home": 0.5096,
    "pick": "NYG",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_01_DEN_KC",
    "week": 1,
    "gameday": "2026-09-14",
    "weekday": "Monday",
    "gametime": "20:15",
    "away": "DEN",
    "home": "KC",
    "neutral": false,
    "elo_away": 1612.6,
    "elo_home": 1508.2,
    "p_home": 0.4195,
    "pick": "DEN",
    "locked": "2026-08-12",
    "result": null
   }
  ]
 },
 "note": "Frozen when generated; rows are never edited except to attach the real result. A missed week stays missed.",
 "ratings": {
  "ARI": 1394.4,
  "ATL": 1470.3,
  "BAL": 1553.4,
  "BUF": 1615.9,
  "CAR": 1426.3,
  "CHI": 1528.7,
  "CIN": 1480.4,
  "CLE": 1419.9,
  "DAL": 1460.7,
  "DEN": 1612.6,
  "DET": 1563.9,
  "GB": 1535.9,
  "HOU": 1605.6,
  "IND": 1469.4,
  "JAX": 1565.9,
  "KC": 1508.2,
  "LA": 1614.7,
  "LAC": 1530.9,
  "LV": 1351.0,
  "MIA": 1459.1,
  "MIN": 1556.1,
  "NE": 1592.8,
  "NO": 1435.3,
  "NYG": 1419.3,
  "NYJ": 1361.5,
  "PHI": 1581.2,
  "PIT": 1516.0,
  "SEA": 1674.6,
  "SF": 1559.4,
  "TB": 1488.4,
  "TEN": 1349.8,
  "WAS": 1458.2
 },
 "ratings_note": "post-2025, after 33% preseason regression toward 1505",
 "updated": "2026-08-13",
 "scoreboard": {
  "predicted": 16,
  "graded": 0,
  "correct": 0,
  "decided": 0,
  "brier": null
 }
}