Learn to Follow the Smart Money
Not all money is created equal in sports betting. Learning to distinguish between sharp (professional) and public (recreational) money is crucial for finding value.
| Characteristic | Sharp Approach | Public Approach |
|---|---|---|
| Timing | Early week, off-peak hours | Game day, close to kickoff |
| Bet Size | Large, calculated amounts | Small, round numbers ($25, $50, $100) |
| Side Selection | Value-based, often contrarian | Favorites, overs, popular teams |
| Research | Models, data, historical analysis | Gut feel, recent performance, narratives |
| Bankroll | Strict management, Kelly-based | Often poor or no management |
Sportsbooks respect sharp money and adjust lines accordingly. A $10,000 bet from a known sharp might move a line more than $100,000 from public bettors.
Line moves opposite to public betting percentages. If 70% of bets are on Team A, but the line moves toward Team B, sharps are likely on Team B.
Sudden, significant line movements across multiple sportsbooks simultaneously, often triggered by syndicate action hitting multiple books at once.
Early line moves before public money arrives. If a line moves significantly Sunday night or Monday morning, it's typically sharp-driven.
When money percentage vastly exceeds ticket percentage on one side, larger (likely sharper) bets are driving it.
| Game | Public % | Money % | Line Move | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs -7 | 78% on Chiefs | 55% on Chiefs | -7 to -6.5 | Sharp money on underdog |
| Cowboys -3 | 85% on Cowboys | 82% on Cowboys | -3 to -3.5 | Public + some sharp |
| Jets +6 | 35% on Jets | 60% on Jets | +6 to +5 | Heavy sharp underdog |
Understanding public biases helps identify contrarian opportunities:
Public bettors overwhelmingly prefer favorites, especially in primetime games. This can inflate spreads beyond fair value.
Historical edge: Dogs 53-55% ATS in heavily public games
Points are exciting! Public bets overs at ~55-60% rates on average, especially in marquee matchups.
Historical edge: Unders slight edge when public heavy on over
Teams that won big last week get overbet. Teams coming off embarrassing losses are often undervalued.
Edge: Bounce-back spots after blowout losses
Popular teams (Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs) are consistently overbet regardless of matchup or situation.
Edge: Fading public darlings in bad spots
Fading the public can be profitable, but requires discipline and context:
| Situation | Contrarian Edge | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Primetime games (SNF, MNF) | Strong | Heavy casual betting inflates public side |
| Large point favorites (7+) | Strong | Public piles on perceived "easy wins" |
| Post-blowout loss teams | Moderate | Overreaction creates value |
| Road underdogs | Moderate | Public dislikes road teams |
| Low-total games | Situational | Public hammers overs regardless |
Different sportsbooks cater to different clientele:
Examples: Pinnacle, Circa, Bookmaker
Use these lines as "true" market
Examples: Most US retail books
Look for value compared to sharp lines
Compare soft book lines to Pinnacle or consensus sharp lines. If a soft book is off by 0.5+ points, that's often where value exists.
Measure if you're betting with the sharps by tracking your Closing Line Value
CLV Guide