The complete guide to football analytics for sports betting, fantasy football, and data science. Learn EPA, win probability, and data-driven decision making.
What changed since the end of Week 5. Updated with results through Sunday, October 25 · next update after the Monday, October 26 games
Kickoff is September 9. The season hub, the frozen prediction ledger, and the opening slate — every number derived, graded in public.
Every 2026 page in one place: the schedule analysis, all eight division previews, and a tracker page for each of the 32 teams.
Open the season hubA frozen win probability for every 2026 game, published before kickoff and graded after. Week 1 is locked; misses stay on the page.
See the predictionsSixteen openers across four days — a Wednesday Super Bowl rematch, Melbourne, and every pairing's head-to-head ledger since 1999.
Read the slateFree interactive calculators for NFL analytics, betting, and fantasy football
Calculate Expected Points for any down, distance, and field position situation.
Use ToolShould you go for it, punt, or kick? Analyze the optimal fourth-down decision.
Use ToolEstimate win probability from the score margin, time remaining, and which side has the ball.
Use ToolFind +EV bets by comparing your probability estimates to betting odds.
Use Tool173 plain-English studies of the advanced numbers — each one the formula, a chart built from the bundled game log, and the caveat that keeps you from over-reading it. Latest October 26, 2026
The library runs from the metrics a broadcast quotes — expected points, DVOA, success rate, CPOE — through the structural effects that move games (home field, rest, weather), to the market studies that test what the betting line already knows (spread accuracy, road favorites, key numbers). The 12 newest are below; the rest are indexed on the explainers page.
3rd and 12 is third down with 12 yards to go to the line to gain. Offenses get four downs to go 10 yards; from 1st and 10 they kept the series going 71.7% of the time in 2016-2025, from 3rd and 12 26.6%. What every down and distance is worth, and the distances teams actually face.
A regular-season game ends tied if the score is level after one 10-minute overtime; playoff games play on. A tie counts as half a win and half a loss. There have been 16 ties since 1999, and five of the 15 from 2002 to 2025 decided a playoff place.
Since 2015 the extra point is snapped from the 15-yard line, a kick of about 33 yards. Kickers made 98.8% from the old spot at the 2 (1999-2014) and 94.4% since; in 2025 they made 1,210 of 1,262, 95.9%, and teams went for two on 9.2% of tries.
A touchdown is 6 points, a field goal 3, a safety 2, and the try after a touchdown 1 or 2. NFL teams scored 12,519 points in 2025, 66.9% of them from touchdowns, and in 13,934 team scores since 1999 no team has finished with 1 point, or with 4.
EPA is expected points after a play minus expected points before it. nflverse's public model prices every snap from seven next-score chances; in 2025 a 1st-and-10 at a team's own 25 was worth 1.16 points, at midfield 2.57 and at the opponent's 25 4.18. The full table by yard line and down, a worked drive, and a check against what actually happened.
A turnover is an interception or a lost fumble; a turnover on downs is counted separately. NFL teams turned it over 629 times in 2025, 1.16 a game and the fewest since at least 2002, and the team with fewer turnovers won 78.8% of games. What each kind costs, and what happens on the next drive.
Divide the projected edge by about 30 PPR points and read the normal curve. Measured on 4,950 matchups built from real NFL weeks, 2021-2025, edges built on season averages shrink: the real margin came out at 0.72 times the projected one, so a 10-point edge is worth about 59% and a 20-point edge about 68%.
Special teams are the units on the field for kicking plays: kickoffs, punts, field goals and extra points, and the teams receiving them. In 2025 they ran 17.5% of NFL plays, 26 a game, and kicks scored 32.0% of the points. The specialists, the kickoff's comeback since 2024, and the fading punt.
YAC, yards after catch, is what a receiver gains once the ball is in his hands. In 2025, 47.2% of the yards on completed passes came after the catch; running backs averaged 8.0 per catch, tight ends 4.9 and wide receivers 4.1. Where the catch is made decides most of it. The leaders, the teams, and why the share has risen while YAC per catch has not.
ATT, CMP, LNG, SCK, TFL, PD and PCT, read off one real box score, the Giants and Washington's 27-27 tie, and checked against the 2025 season's totals. Sacks are not pass attempts, spikes are, kneel-downs are runs, and a tie is half a win: the Giants' 3-2-1 is .583.
Drive 1 is the game's first possession, run by the team that receives the opening kickoff, and drives are numbered for both teams in one sequence. In 2025 opening drives ended in points 45.6% of the time, the most since 2002, against 39.3% for all drives. How drives end, where Drive 1 starts, and how often a first-drive touchdown went with a win (62.6%).
Division games always split their wins and losses inside the division, so the fair test is the games against everyone else. Through week 6 the NFC North is 13-3 against other divisions and the AFC North 12-5; the NFC East and AFC South are 5-11. What a strong start has meant since 2002, and who each division has played.
From foundational concepts to advanced machine learning techniques, this textbook covers everything you need to master NFL analytics.
Browse All ChaptersData infrastructure, nflverse, wrangling, and visualization basics.
5 ChaptersPassing, rushing, EPA analysis, success rate, and efficiency metrics.
7 ChaptersCoverage analysis, pass rush, run defense, and scheme evaluation.
6 ChaptersFourth down decisions, two-point conversions, and win probability.
4 ChaptersMachine learning, Bayesian methods, tracking data, and simulation.
5 ChaptersSpecial teams, personnel, college football, and future trends.
18 ChaptersIn-depth analytics profiles for all 32 NFL teams
100+ code examples in R and Python covering data loading, EPA analysis, visualization, betting models, and machine learning.
# Load NFL play-by-play data with nflfastR
library(nflfastR)
library(tidyverse)
# Get 2024 season data
pbp_2024 <- load_pbp(2024)
# Calculate team EPA per play
team_epa <- pbp_2024 %>%
filter(!is.na(epa)) %>%
group_by(posteam) %>%
summarize(
plays = n(),
total_epa = sum(epa),
epa_per_play = mean(epa),
success_rate = mean(success)
) %>%
arrange(desc(epa_per_play))
# View top offenses
head(team_epa, 10)Data-driven betting strategies
Learn how to use analytics to find +EV bets, manage your bankroll, and make smarter betting decisions.
Data sources, tools & community
Curated collection of the best NFL analytics resources, data sources, APIs, and learning materials.
Start with Chapter 1 and work your way through the full curriculum.