The Gold Standard for Measuring Betting Skill
Closing Line Value measures whether you consistently beat the closing line - the final odds before a game starts. It's the single best predictor of long-term betting success.
The closing line is the sharpest, most efficient line because it incorporates all available information. If you consistently beat it, you're finding value the market eventually recognizes.
You bet: Chiefs -3 (-110)
Closing line: Chiefs -4 (-110)
+1 point of CLV
You bet: Bills +2 (-110)
Closing line: Bills +3.5 (-110)
-1.5 points of CLV
Many bettors obsess over win rate, but CLV is far more predictive of long-term success:
| Metric | Predictive Value | Sample Size Needed |
|---|---|---|
| CLV | High - Strong correlation with long-term profit | ~100-200 bets |
| Win Rate | Medium - Subject to variance | ~1,000+ bets |
| ROI | Medium - Mix of skill and luck | ~500-1,000 bets |
Studies show that bettors with consistent positive CLV are profitable long-term, even during losing streaks. Conversely, bettors with negative CLV who run hot eventually regress.
Each point of CLV on spreads is worth approximately 2.5-3% in expected win rate:
Track your Closing Line Value for spread bets:
Document the exact line and odds when you place each bet:
Record the final line before game start from a sharp book (Pinnacle, Circa, or consensus line):
Track both types of CLV:
The difference in spread or total between your bet and the close. Most useful for spread/total bets.
The difference in implied probability. Better for comparing across bet types (spreads, moneylines, totals).
| Date | Game | My Line | My Odds | Close Line | Close Odds | Pts CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/15 | KC -3 | -3 | -110 | -4.5 | -110 | +1.5 | W |
| 12/15 | BUF +2 | +2 | -105 | +1 | -110 | -1.0 | L |
| 12/15 | SF/SEA o47 | 47 | -110 | 48.5 | -110 | +1.5 | W |
| Average CLV | Assessment | Action |
|---|---|---|
| +1.0 points or more | Excellent - Sharp bettor level | Continue current approach, scale up if bankroll allows |
| +0.5 to +1.0 points | Very Good - Consistent edge | Maintain discipline, focus on bet volume |
| 0 to +0.5 points | Slight edge - Breaking even or small profit | Refine selection criteria, shop lines harder |
| -0.5 to 0 points | Slight negative - Losing to juice | Review bet selection process, improve timing |
| Below -0.5 points | Significant negative - Wrong side of market | Major reassessment needed, consider fading yourself |
CLV should be tracked over at least 100-200 bets before drawing conclusions. Short-term CLV can be misleading due to line movement randomness.
Opening lines often have inefficiencies:
Half a point matters tremendously:
Information advantages are brief:
Create data-driven edges:
While CLV is the gold standard, there are situations where it may not tell the full story:
If you chase steam moves (betting after sharp action moves the line), you'll often have positive CLV but may be getting stale numbers. The real value was captured by the original sharp bettor.
Sometimes the closing line moves against heavy public money due to sharp counter-action. In these cases, negative CLV might actually indicate you're on the right side.
Props and alternative lines may not have efficient closing lines due to lower liquidity. CLV is less reliable in these markets than in main spreads and totals.
| +0.5 pts | ~51.5% EWR |
| +1.0 pts | ~53% EWR |
| +1.5 pts | ~54.5% EWR |
| +2.0 pts | ~56% EWR |
Use our EV Calculator to find positive expected value bets to boost your CLV
EV Calculator