EV Calculator

Find positive expected value betting opportunities

Expected Value Calculator
Enter the odds offered by the sportsbook
%
Your estimated probability of winning this bet
Results

Enter your values and click Calculate

Understanding Expected Value

What is EV?

Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. A bet has +EV when your probability estimate is higher than the implied probability from the odds.

EV = (Win Prob × Profit) - (Loss Prob × Stake)
How to Use This
  1. Build your own probability model using EPA, success rate, etc.
  2. Estimate your true win probability for each bet
  3. Compare to the sportsbook's implied probability
  4. Only bet when you have positive expected value

Implied Probability Quick Reference

American Odds Implied Probability Break-Even Win Rate
-11052.4%52.4%
-15060.0%60.0%
-20066.7%66.7%
+10050.0%50.0%
+15040.0%40.0%
+20033.3%33.3%