Understanding the Numbers That Define NFL Margins
Key numbers in NFL betting are margins of victory that occur most frequently due to the NFL's scoring system (touchdowns worth 6+1, field goals worth 3).
Games landing on key numbers determine whether your bet wins, loses, or pushes. Buying off or onto key numbers can significantly impact your expected value.
Historical margin of victory distribution (2000-2024):
| Margin | Frequency | Common Scores | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
3 |
~15-16% | 24-21, 27-24, 17-14 | CRITICAL |
7 |
~9-10% | 28-21, 21-14, 35-28 | CRITICAL |
6 |
~5-6% | 27-21, 24-18, 20-14 | Important |
4 |
~5-6% | 24-20, 28-24, 17-13 | Important |
10 |
~6-7% | 27-17, 24-14, 30-20 | Important |
14 |
~4-5% | 28-14, 35-21, 21-7 | Secondary |
1 |
~3-4% | 20-19, 24-23, 28-27 | Secondary |
2 |
~3-4% | 23-21, 17-15, 30-28 | Minor |
3 and 7 account for approximately 25% of all NFL game margins. Understanding and respecting these numbers is foundational to NFL betting success.
Number 3 is the most important number in NFL betting, representing a one-score game decided by a field goal.
| Scenario | Cost to Buy | Worth It? | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3 to -2.5 | 10-15 cents (-120 to -125) | Sometimes | Worth at -120, not at -125+ |
| +2.5 to +3 | 10-15 cents (-120 to -125) | Yes | Push protection worth the juice |
| -3.5 to -3 | 10-15 cents | Yes | Avoiding dead zone worth premium |
| +3 to +3.5 | 10-15 cents | Sometimes | Depends on matchup and total |
Number 7 is the second most important key number, representing a one-touchdown margin.
With increased 2-point conversion attempts (especially late-game), margins of 6 and 8 are becoming slightly more common relative to 7. Monitor this trend.
Common scores: 27-17, 24-14, 30-20 (TD + FG margin)
Why it matters: Two-score game threshold. Games at 10 often feature a FG + TD differential, which is common when one team controls the game.
Betting tip: Getting +10.5 instead of +10 provides meaningful insurance against two-score games.
Common scores: 27-21, 24-18, 20-14 (two FGs or TD vs FG)
Why it matters: Increasing with more 2-point conversions and missed PATs. Some analysts consider 6 the "new 7".
Betting tip: Pay attention to +6.5 vs +7 decisions. The half-point between these numbers is becoming more valuable.
Common scores: 24-20, 28-24, 17-13 (FG difference + TD swap)
Why it matters: Common margin when teams trade FGs or late-game FGs determine outcome.
Betting tip: Less important than 3 or 7, but still worth noting when you're on a -4 or +4 line.
Common scores: 28-14, 35-21, 21-7 (two TD margin)
Why it matters: Two-touchdown games are the most common "blowout" margin.
Betting tip: Relevant for large spreads and teasers. Getting through 14 on a teaser is valuable.
Key numbers are foundational to teaser strategy. The Wong Teaser approach specifically targets crossing key numbers:
| Original Line | Teased To | Key Numbers Crossed | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite -7.5 to -8.5 | -1.5 to -2.5 | 7, 6, 4, 3 | Excellent |
| Underdog +1.5 to +2.5 | +7.5 to +8.5 | 3, 4, 6, 7 | Excellent |
| Favorite -2 to -3 | +3 to +4 | 3 (both ways) | Good |
| Underdog +7 to +8 | +13 to +14 | 10, 14 | Marginal |
For 6-point teasers: Target favorites -7.5 to -8.5 (teased to -1.5 to -2.5) and underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 (teased to +7.5 to +8.5). These positions cross the maximum key numbers for value.
More teams going for 2 in strategic situations means:
Since 2015, PATs are from the 15-yard line:
| Number | Frequency | Priority |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | ~15-16% | CRITICAL |
| 7 | ~9-10% | CRITICAL |
| 10 | ~6-7% | Important |
| 6 | ~5-6% | Important |
| 4 | ~5-6% | Secondary |
| 14 | ~4-5% | Secondary |