Intermediate Strategy

NFL Teaser Strategy

The math behind when teasers actually offer positive expected value

What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a parlay where you can adjust point spreads in your favor in exchange for reduced odds. All legs must win.

Example: 6-Point Teaser
Original Lines
  • Chiefs -7.5
  • Bills -3
After 6-Point Tease
  • Chiefs -1.5
  • Bills +3

Payout: 2-team, 6-point teaser typically pays -110 to -120

The Math: When Teasers Are +EV

The Key Insight

Teasers become profitable when you cross key numbers (3 and 7) on both legs. Crossing key numbers significantly increases win probability, often by more than the reduced payout suggests.

Break-Even Math

For a standard 2-team, 6-point teaser at -110:

Break-even requires:

72.4%
per leg (52.4%² = 27.6% losing rate)

The question: Can crossing key numbers push each leg above 72.4%?

Original Line Teased To Keys Crossed Est. Win %
-7.5 to -8.5 -1.5 to -2.5 7 and 3 74-78%
-2.5 to -3 +3 to +3.5 3 (both sides) 73-76%
-4.5 to -5 +1 to +1.5 3 only 68-72%
-10 -4 7 only 65-70%

Optimal Teaser Construction

The "Wong Teaser" Approach

Named after gambling author Stanford Wong, this strategy identifies +EV teaser opportunities:

Rules:
  1. 6-point teasers only (not 6.5 or 7)
  2. Must cross both 3 AND 7 on each leg
  3. Favorites: -7.5 to -8.5 → teased to -1.5 to -2.5
  4. Underdogs: +1.5 to +2.5 → teased to +7.5 to +8.5
Historically: Wong teasers that follow these rules have shown long-term profitability.
Good Teaser Legs
  • Favorite -7.5 → -1.5
  • Favorite -8 → -2
  • Favorite -8.5 → -2.5
  • Underdog +1.5 → +7.5
  • Underdog +2 → +8
  • Underdog +2.5 → +8.5
Poor Teaser Legs
  • Favorite -3 → +3 (doesn't cross 7)
  • Favorite -10 → -4 (doesn't cross 3)
  • Favorite -14 → -8 (crosses 10, not 3)
  • Underdog +7 → +13 (already past 7)
  • Any pick'em game

Teaser Variations

Type Points 2-Team Odds Recommendation
Standard 6 -110 to -120 Best value
6.5-point 6.5 -120 to -130 Marginal
7-point 7 -130 to -140 Avoid
Sweetheart/Monster 10-13 Varies Avoid
Why 6 points? The extra half-point or full point rarely crosses additional key numbers, but significantly reduces your payout.

Totals Teasers

You can also tease totals, but they're generally less valuable:

The Problem

Totals don't have the same "key number" structure as spreads. Points cluster around 41, 44, 47, 51 but not as dramatically as 3 and 7 for margins.

When It Works

Crossing through 40-43 and 48-51 ranges can add value, but it's harder to identify clear +EV spots.

Recommendation: Stick to spread teasers. If you include totals, only do so when they cross multiple common totals.

3+ Team Teasers

Adding more legs to teasers changes the math:

Legs Typical Odds Required Win %/Leg Assessment
2 -110 72.4% Best value
3 +150 to +180 68-70% Marginal
4+ Varies 65-68% Generally -EV

The trap: More legs look appealing because of better odds, but the math rarely works in your favor unless all legs cross key numbers perfectly.

Practical Tips

  1. Shop for the best teaser odds

    -110 vs -120 matters significantly over time

  2. Wait for the right spots

    Not every week has good teaser opportunities

  3. Check if ties push or lose

    Some books count ties as losses on teasers - avoid these

  4. Don't force legs

    It's okay to skip a week if only one good leg exists

  5. Track your results

    Document which teasers you take and why

Related Strategies

Parlay Strategy Key Numbers Guide Spread Betting
Teaser Checklist
  • 6-point teaser only
  • Crosses both 3 AND 7
  • Favorite -7.5 to -8.5 range
  • OR Underdog +1.5 to +2.5 range
  • Odds -120 or better
  • Ties push, not lose
Optimal Starting Lines
Favorites

-7.5, -8, -8.5 → teased to -1.5, -2, -2.5

Underdogs

+1.5, +2, +2.5 → teased to +7.5, +8, +8.5

Related Strategies