2025 NFL Playoffs

Analytics-driven playoff predictions, interactive bracket, and matchup analysis

Updated: Jan 16, 2026
Bracket
Predictions
Analysis
Super Bowl

Playoff Bracket

2025-26 NFL Playoff bracket with model-based win probabilities

AFC Playoffs
#1 BUF 14-3 First-Round Bye
Wild Card Round
#2 PIT vs #7 JAX
68% 32%
#3 HOU vs #6 NE
62% 38%
#4 LAC vs #5 DEN
55% 45%
Divisional Round
#1 BUF vs Lowest Remaining Seed
Wild Card Winners
AFC Championship
Jan 25, 2026

Super Bowl LX

February 8, 2026

Levi's Stadium
Santa Clara, CA

AFC Champion vs NFC Champion
NFC Playoffs
#1 PHI 14-3 First-Round Bye
Wild Card Round
#2 SEA vs #7 GB
65% 35%
#3 CHI vs #6 LA
58% 42%
#4 CAR vs #5 SF
42% 58%
Divisional Round
#1 PHI vs Lowest Remaining Seed
Wild Card Winners
NFC Championship
Jan 25, 2026

Super Bowl Win Probabilities

Model-based predictions using EPA per play, success rate, strength of schedule, and playoff seeding

AFC Playoff Teams
Seed Team Record EPA/Play SB %
#1 Buffalo Bills 14-3 +0.152
16.8%
#2 Pittsburgh Steelers 12-5 +0.108
11.2%
#3 Houston Texans 11-6 +0.118
7.5%
#4 Los Angeles Chargers 11-6 +0.095
5.8%
#5 Denver Broncos 11-6 +0.088
3.9%
#6 New England Patriots 10-7 +0.072
2.1%
#7 Jacksonville Jaguars 10-7 +0.058
1.2%
NFC Playoff Teams
Seed Team Record EPA/Play SB %
#1 Philadelphia Eagles 14-3 +0.158
18.5%
#2 Seattle Seahawks 13-4 +0.128
12.8%
#3 Chicago Bears 12-5 +0.135
7.8%
#4 Carolina Panthers 10-7 +0.048
2.9%
#5 San Francisco 49ers 11-6 +0.095
4.2%
#6 Los Angeles Rams 10-7 +0.068
1.9%
#7 Green Bay Packers 10-7 +0.055
1%
Model Methodology
EPA Per Play
Offensive and defensive efficiency
Success Rate
Consistency on each play
Playoff Seeding
Home field advantage built in

Playoff Analysis

Key Factors in Playoff Success
  • Quarterback EPA
    Elite QB play is essential in January
    High Correlation
  • Turnover Margin
    Protect the ball, force mistakes
    High Correlation
  • Explosive Play Rate
    20+ yard plays per game
    High Correlation
  • 3rd Down Conversion
    Sustain drives in crucial moments
    Medium
  • Red Zone TD%
    Score TDs, not field goals
    Medium
  • Time of Possession
    Efficiency matters more than volume
    Low
Historical Playoff Trends
Home Field Advantage 57%

Home teams win 57% of playoff games since 2002

#1 Seeds to Conference Championship 72%

First-round bye is extremely valuable

#1 Seeds to Super Bowl 48%

Nearly half of #1 seeds make the big game

Wild Card Upsets (6/7 beating 3/4) 38%

Lower seeds pull upsets more than you'd think

Top Contenders Breakdown
Philadelphia Eagles
18.5%
Record: 14-3
EPA/Play: +0.158
Highest EPA in NFL
Buffalo Bills
16.8%
Record: 14-3
EPA/Play: +0.152
Elite Passing Attack
Pittsburgh Steelers
11.2%
Record: 12-5
EPA/Play: +0.108
Elite Defense
Seattle Seahawks
12.8%
Record: 13-4
EPA/Play: +0.128
Defensive Revival

Super Bowl LX Preview

Super Bowl LX

February 8, 2026

Levi's Stadium | Santa Clara, CA

AFC Champion
TBD
vs
NFC Champion
TBD
60
Edition
68,500
Capacity
6:30 PM
Kickoff ET
Super Bowl Futures Betting

Current betting market favorites for Super Bowl LX:

Team Odds Implied % Model %
Philadelphia Eagles +350 22.2% 18.5%
Buffalo Bills +400 20.0% 16.8%
Pittsburgh Steelers +550 15.4% 11.2%
Seattle Seahawks +700 12.5% 12.8%
Finding Value: Compare our model probabilities to implied odds. When our model is significantly higher than the market, there may be betting value.

Playoff Betting Angles

Historically Profitable
  • Underdogs +7 or more (54% ATS)
  • Road teams in divisional round
  • Unders in conference championships
  • Teams off bye vs short rest
Key Numbers
  • 3 - Most common margin
  • 7 - Second most common
  • 6, 10, 14 - Also significant
  • Buy off key numbers when possible
Totals Trends
  • Wild card games tend to go over
  • Championship games trend under
  • Cold weather = lower scoring
  • Dome games average 3+ more points
Avoid These
  • Laying big numbers with favorites
  • Backing teams with QB injuries
  • Fading teams after close losses
  • Overreacting to regular season

Related Resources

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