2026 NFL Playoffs

Analytics-driven playoff predictions, interactive bracket, and matchup analysis

Updated: Mar 3, 2026
Bracket
Predictions
Analysis
Super Bowl

Playoff Bracket - Conference Championship

2025-26 NFL Playoff bracket - Final 4 teams competing for Super Bowl LX berth

AFC Playoffs
Divisional Round (Complete)
DEN 33-30 OT BUF
NE 28-16 HOU
AFC Championship (Jan 25)
Sun 3:00 PM ET - CBS
#2 NE @ #1 DEN
62.5% NE 37.5% DEN
NE -4.5 | O/U 42.5

Super Bowl LX

February 8, 2026

Levi's Stadium
Santa Clara, CA

AFC vs NFC Champion
NFC Playoffs
Divisional Round (Complete)
SEA 41-6 SF
LA 20-17 OT CHI
NFC Championship (Jan 25)
Sun 6:30 PM ET - FOX
#5 LA @ #1 SEA
42.5% LA 57.5% SEA
SEA -2.5 | O/U 46.5
Eliminated:
Wild Card: AFC: Steelers (lost 6-30 to HOU), Chargers (lost 3-16 to NE), Jaguars (lost 24-27 to BUF) | NFC: Eagles (lost 19-23 to SF), Packers (lost 27-31 to CHI), Panthers (lost 31-34 to LA)
Divisional: AFC: Bills (lost 30-33 OT to DEN), Texans (lost 16-28 to NE) | NFC: 49ers (lost 6-41 to SEA), Bears (lost 17-20 OT to LA)

Super Bowl Win Probabilities - Final Four

Updated probabilities for the 4 remaining teams based on Conference Championship matchups

AFC Playoff Teams
Seed Team Record EPA/Play SB %
#1 Denver Broncos 16-3 +0.152
18.8%
#2 New England Patriots 16-3 +0.148
31.2%
NFC Playoff Teams
Seed Team Record EPA/Play SB %
#1 Seattle Seahawks 16-3 +0.168
28.2%
#5 Los Angeles Rams 14-5 +0.138
21.8%
Model Methodology
EPA Per Play
Offensive and defensive efficiency
Success Rate
Consistency on each play
Playoff Seeding
Home field advantage built in

Playoff Analysis

Key Factors in Playoff Success
  • Quarterback EPA
    Elite QB play is essential in January
    High Correlation
  • Turnover Margin
    Protect the ball, force mistakes
    High Correlation
  • Explosive Play Rate
    20+ yard plays per game
    High Correlation
  • 3rd Down Conversion
    Sustain drives in crucial moments
    Medium
  • Red Zone TD%
    Score TDs, not field goals
    Medium
  • Time of Possession
    Efficiency matters more than volume
    Low
Historical Playoff Trends
Home Field Advantage 57%

Home teams win 57% of playoff games since 2002

#1 Seeds to Conference Championship 72%

First-round bye is extremely valuable

#1 Seeds to Super Bowl 48%

Nearly half of #1 seeds make the big game

Wild Card Upsets (6/7 beating 3/4) 38%

Lower seeds pull upsets more than you'd think

Final Four Breakdown
FAVORITE
New England Patriots
31.2%
Record: 16-3
EPA/Play: +0.148
Elite Defense + Drake Maye
Seattle Seahawks
28.2%
Record: 16-3
EPA/Play: +0.168
Highest EPA + JSN
Los Angeles Rams
21.8%
Record: 14-5
EPA/Play: +0.138
Stafford's 46 TDs
Denver Broncos
18.8%
Record: 16-3
EPA/Play: +0.152
Home Field + OT Win

Super Bowl LX Preview

Super Bowl LX

February 8, 2026

Levi's Stadium | Santa Clara, CA

AFC Champion
TBD
vs
NFC Champion
TBD
60
Edition
68,500
Capacity
6:30 PM
Kickoff ET
Super Bowl Futures Betting

Conference Championship week odds for Super Bowl LX:

Team Odds Implied % Model %
New England Patriots +180 35.7% 31.2%
Seattle Seahawks +210 32.3% 28.2%
Los Angeles Rams +340 22.7% 21.8%
Denver Broncos +380 20.8% 18.8%
Value Spot: Rams at +340 (22.7% implied) vs our 21.8% model shows fair pricing. Broncos at +380 may offer slight value as home underdogs.

Playoff Betting Angles

Historically Profitable
  • Underdogs +7 or more (54% ATS)
  • Road teams in divisional round
  • Unders in conference championships
  • Teams off bye vs short rest
Key Numbers
  • 3 - Most common margin
  • 7 - Second most common
  • 6, 10, 14 - Also significant
  • Buy off key numbers when possible
Totals Trends
  • Wild card games tend to go over
  • Championship games trend under
  • Cold weather = lower scoring
  • Dome games average 3+ more points
Avoid These
  • Laying big numbers with favorites
  • Backing teams with QB injuries
  • Fading teams after close losses
  • Overreacting to regular season

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