Complete definitions of football analytics terminology
The distance the ball travels in the air from the line of scrimmage to the point where it is caught (or would have been caught). Air yards exclude yards after catch (YAC).
Air Yards = Pass Distance - YAC
A 20-yard completion where the receiver catches the ball 12 yards downfield has 12 air yards and 8 YAC.
The average distance downfield a quarterback throws the ball on pass attempts. Higher aDOT indicates a more aggressive passing attack.
aDOT = Total Air Yards / Pass Attempts
Patrick Mahomes had an aDOT of 8.2 yards in 2023.
A quarterback efficiency metric that accounts for touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks in addition to yards per attempt.
ANY/A = (Yards + 20×TD - 45×INT - Sack Yards) / (Attempts + Sacks)
Elite QBs typically have ANY/A above 7.0.
The number of defenders positioned within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage at the snap. Higher box counts indicate run-focused defensive alignments.
Count of defenders within 8 yards of LOS
A stacked box (8+ defenders) typically signals an expected run play.
The percentage of passing plays where a defense sends more pass rushers than blockers available.
Blitz Rate = Blitz Plays / Total Pass Plays
League average blitz rate is approximately 25-30%.
The win rate needed to break even at given betting odds, accounting for the sportsbook's vig.
Break-Even % = Risk / (Risk + Win Amount)
At -110 odds, you need to win 52.4% to break even.
The number of times a ball carrier evades a tackle attempt by a defender.
Elite running backs average 0.2+ broken tackles per attempt.
Measures how much better or worse a quarterback completes passes compared to expectation based on factors like depth, coverage, and pressure.
CPOE = Actual Completion % - Expected Completion %
A CPOE of +3% means the QB completes passes 3% more often than expected.
The percentage of targets that result in receptions for a receiver.
Catch Rate = Receptions / Targets
A receiver with 80 receptions on 100 targets has an 80% catch rate.
The difference between the odds at which you placed a bet and the final closing line. Positive CLV indicates you beat the market.
CLV = Your Line - Closing Line
Betting a team at -3 that closes at -5 gives you +2 points of CLV.
The percentage of games where the favorite covers the spread, or the percentage where the total goes over.
Home favorites cover approximately 50% of the time historically.
A Football Outsiders metric that compares a team's success on each play to league average, adjusted for opponent strength. Positive values indicate above-average performance.
Complex calculation adjusting success rate by opponent and situation
A team with +15% DVOA is performing 15% better than league average after adjustments.
Any play where the quarterback drops back to pass, including traditional passes, sacks, and scrambles.
A QB with 500 dropbacks includes his pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.
A rushing play called in the huddle, as opposed to scrambles or QB draws that develop after the snap.
Lamar Jackson leads the league in designed QB runs.
The average number of points a team is expected to score given a specific down, distance, and field position, based on historical play-by-play data.
Derived from historical scoring data for each game situation
1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth approximately 4.0 expected points.
The value a play adds (or subtracts) compared to the expected points before the play. EPA is the most widely used advanced metric in NFL analytics.
EPA = EP After Play - EP Before Play
A 15-yard gain on 3rd and 10 that results in a first down adds positive EPA.
The average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per bet over time. Positive EV (+EV) indicates a profitable betting opportunity.
EV = (Win Prob × Win Amount) - (Loss Prob × Stake)
A bet with 55% win probability at +100 odds has +10% EV.
A play that gains significant yardage. Common definitions include runs of 10+ yards or passes of 20+ yards.
Teams averaging more explosive plays per game tend to score more points.
A power rating system where teams gain or lose points based on game results relative to expectations. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.
New Elo = Old Elo + K × (Result - Expected)
An average NFL team has an Elo around 1500.
Points scored in fantasy football based on a player's statistical production. Scoring systems vary (PPR, Half-PPR, Standard).
Varies by scoring system (e.g., PPR: 1 pt/reception, 0.1 pt/yard, 6 pts/TD)
A receiver with 8 catches for 100 yards and a TD scores 26 PPR points.
The location on the field where a play starts, measured as yards from the offensive team's own goal line.
Starting at your own 25 vs. the opponent's 25 is a 50-yard field position difference.
The percentage of plays that result in a first down or touchdown.
First Down Rate = (First Downs + TDs) / Plays
A 25% first down rate means 1 in 4 plays converts.
Late-game plays when the outcome is essentially decided, often with win probability below 10% or above 90%.
Typically defined as WP < 10% or WP > 90% in 4th quarter
Garbage time stats can inflate a losing team's offensive numbers.
The percentage of fourth down situations where a team elects to go for it rather than punt or kick a field goal.
Go Rate = 4th Down Attempts / 4th Down Situations
Aggressive coaches like Kevin Stefanski have go rates above 20%.
The historical edge that home teams have over visitors, typically worth about 2-3 points in NFL.
Post-COVID, home field advantage has declined to approximately 1.5 points.
A play where a pass rusher forces the quarterback to throw before he intended, without recording a sack or hit.
Elite pass rushers generate 50+ hurries per season.
The win probability implied by betting odds, which includes the sportsbook's margin (vig).
At -110: Implied Prob = 110 / 210 = 52.4%
A -200 favorite has an implied probability of 66.7%.
The percentage of pass attempts that result in interceptions.
INT% = Interceptions / Pass Attempts
League average interception rate is around 2.5%.
A mathematical formula for optimal bet sizing that maximizes long-term bankroll growth based on your edge and the odds offered.
Kelly % = (bp - q) / b, where b = decimal odds - 1, p = win probability, q = loss probability
With a 55% win probability at -110 odds, full Kelly suggests betting 5.5% of bankroll.
Common final score margins in NFL games, particularly 3 and 7 which occur most frequently due to field goals and touchdowns.
Games land on exactly 3 about 15% of the time; on 7 about 9%.
Changes in betting lines from opening to closing, driven by betting action and new information.
A line moving from -3 to -6 indicates heavy action on the favorite.
The importance of a play based on its potential impact on win probability. High-leverage situations include 4th quarter close games.
A 3rd and goal in OT is a maximum leverage situation.
A defensive scheme where each defensive back is assigned to cover a specific receiver, following them throughout the route.
Man coverage requires athletic DBs but is susceptible to pick plays.
The difference between the winning and losing team's score, used as a measure of dominance.
MOV = Winner Score - Loser Score
Teams with higher MOV tend to be better predictors of future success than win-loss record.
The NFL's official player tracking system using RFID chips to measure speed, distance, separation, and other metrics.
NGS shows receiver separation at the time of throw to the nearest 0.1 yards.
Plays that occur in competitive game situations, typically when win probability is between 20-80%, used to evaluate true team quality.
Neutral script EPA is more predictive than total EPA.
A bet on whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a specified total set by the sportsbook.
An O/U of 47.5 means betting on whether total points exceed or fall short of 47.5.
The percentage of a team's rushing attempts and targets that go to a specific player.
Opp Share = (Carries + Targets) / Team Plays
A 25% opportunity share is elite for a running back.
A passing play where the quarterback fakes a handoff to freeze the defense before throwing.
Play action passes typically have higher EPA than standard dropbacks.
The percentage of dropbacks where the quarterback is pressured by the defense (hurried, hit, or sacked).
Pressure Rate = Pressures / Dropbacks
League average pressure rate is approximately 25%.
The difference between points scored and points allowed over a season, a key indicator of team quality.
Point Diff = Points For - Points Against
+100 point differential over 17 games averages to +5.9 per game.
A formula that estimates expected wins based on points scored and allowed, more predictive than actual wins.
Expected Wins = PF^2.37 / (PF^2.37 + PA^2.37) × Games
A team that outperforms Pythagorean wins often regresses the following year.
The combination of running backs and tight ends on the field, expressed as a two-digit number (e.g., 11 = 1 RB, 1 TE).
First digit = RBs, Second digit = TEs
11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) is the most common grouping in modern NFL.
Traditional NFL quarterback efficiency metric combining completion %, yards/attempt, TD%, and INT%. Scale of 0-158.3.
Complex formula with four components scaled 0-2.375 each
A perfect passer rating is 158.3; league average is around 90.
ESPN's proprietary quarterback rating that accounts for situation, opponent, and EPA. Scale of 0-100.
Proprietary ESPN calculation including EPA and clutch weighting
A QBR of 70+ is elite; league average is around 50.
The area between the opponent's 20-yard line and goal line, where scoring probability increases significantly.
Red zone TD% measures how often drives reaching the RZ result in touchdowns vs. field goals.
The difference between actual rushing yards and expected yards based on blocking, defenders, and other factors.
RYOE = Actual Yards - Expected Yards
A RYOE of +2.0 per carry indicates elite running back efficiency.
The path a receiver runs to get open, tracked by Next Gen Stats for every eligible receiver on each play.
A receiver may run 40+ routes in a game but only receive 8 targets.
The percentage of plays that gain enough yards to be considered successful. Generally: 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, 100% on 3rd/4th down.
Success Rate = Successful Plays / Total Plays
A team with 50% success rate converts half their plays into positive situations.
The distance between a receiver and the nearest defender at the time of the catch or pass arrival, measured using Next Gen Stats tracking data.
Measured in yards using player tracking
Elite route runners average 3+ yards of separation.
The point handicap set by sportsbooks to equalize betting action. The favorite must win by more than the spread to cover.
If Chiefs are -7 vs. Raiders, KC must win by 8+ for bettors to win.
The number of offensive or defensive plays a player participates in during a game.
A player with 65 of 70 snaps has a 93% snap share.
The percentage of dropbacks that result in a sack.
Sack Rate = Sacks / Dropbacks
League average sack rate is around 6-7%.
The percentage of a team's pass attempts that are thrown to a specific receiver.
Target Share = Player Targets / Team Pass Attempts
A 25%+ target share is elite; Tyreek Hill led the league at 29% in 2022.
The average time from snap to throw for a quarterback, measured by Next Gen Stats.
Average seconds from snap to release
Quick passing games average under 2.5 seconds; league average is ~2.7.
A change of possession via fumble or interception. Turnover margin is a key but noisy statistic.
Turnovers have high variance year-to-year and tend to regress to the mean.
Completion percentage that excludes drops, throwaways, spikes, and batted passes to better isolate QB accuracy.
True Comp% = Completions / (Attempts - Drops - Throwaways - Spikes - Batted)
True completion% is typically 5-8% higher than raw completion%.
The percentage of team plays that involve a specific player, either as a rusher or receiver.
Usage = (Carries + Targets) / Team Plays
High usage running backs are valuable in fantasy but prone to injury.
The commission charged by sportsbooks on losing bets, also called juice. Standard vig is -110 (10%).
Vig = (1 / Odds A + 1 / Odds B) - 1
At -110/-110, the vig is about 4.5%, meaning you need 52.4% to break even.
The estimated chance a team will win the game based on the current score, time remaining, field position, and possession.
Model-based calculation using game state variables
A team leading by 7 with 2 minutes left and the ball has ~95% WP.
The change in win probability resulting from a single play. Large positive WPA indicates a play that significantly increased the team's chance of winning.
WPA = WP After Play - WP Before Play
A game-winning touchdown in the final seconds adds nearly 100% WPA.
Weighted Opportunity Rating combines target share and air yards share to measure receiver usage.
WOPR = (1.5 × Target Share) + (0.7 × Air Yards Share)
A WOPR above 0.45 indicates a heavily-utilized receiver.
The number of yards gained by a receiver after catching the ball, before being tackled or going out of bounds.
YAC = Total Receiving Yards - Air Yards
A screen pass with 2 air yards and 15 YAC totals 17 receiving yards.
A receiving efficiency metric that divides total receiving yards by the number of routes run, not just targets.
YPRR = Receiving Yards / Routes Run
Elite receivers average 2.0+ YPRR.
Rushing yards gained before the ball carrier is first touched by a defender, measuring offensive line effectiveness.
YBC = Yards to first contact point
High YBC indicates good blocking; low YBC with high total yards indicates elite RB ability.
Average yards gained per pass attempt, a simple but effective QB efficiency metric.
Y/A = Passing Yards / Pass Attempts
Elite QBs average 8.0+ Y/A; league average is around 7.0.
A defensive scheme where defenders are responsible for areas of the field rather than specific receivers.
Cover 3 and Cover 2 are common zone concepts.