NFL Analytics Tools

Free interactive calculators for football analytics, sports betting, and fantasy football

Core Analytics Tools

Essential calculators for understanding NFL play-by-play analytics

Expected Points (EP) Calculator

Calculate the expected points value for any down, distance, and field position situation.

Learn about EPA in Chapter 9 →

Fourth Down Decision Calculator

Should you go for it, punt, or kick a field goal? Analyze the optimal decision.

Learn about fourth down analytics →

Win Probability Calculator

Estimate win probability based on score, time, and game situation.

+ if leading

Learn about win probability →

Optimal Pass Rate Calculator

Calculate optimal pass rate based on situation and efficiency metrics.

Pass EPA - Rush EPA

EPA Comparison Tool

Compare offensive and defensive EPA metrics between two teams.

Success Rate Calculator

Calculate offensive success rate based on down and distance thresholds.

Success = 40%+ of yards needed on 1st, 60%+ on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th

Red Zone Efficiency Analyzer

Analyze red zone TD rate vs league average with regression indicator.

Third Down Analyzer

Break down third down efficiency by distance category.

Turnover Luck Calculator

Compare actual turnovers to expected based on opportunities.

Sports Betting Tools

Calculate expected value, optimal bet sizes, and convert odds formats

Betting Expected Value Calculator

Calculate if a bet has positive expected value based on your estimated probability.

e.g., -110, +150

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Calculate optimal bet size for long-term bankroll growth.

Odds Converter

Convert between American, Decimal, and Fractional odds formats.

Parlay Calculator

Calculate parlay payouts and implied probabilities.

Hedge Calculator

Calculate optimal hedge bet to guarantee profit or minimize loss.

Sportsbook Hold Calculator

Calculate the sportsbook's hold percentage (vig) on a market.

Break-Even Calculator

Calculate the win percentage needed to break even at given odds.

Teaser Calculator

Calculate teaser payouts and analyze key number crossings.

Learn about teaser strategy →

Arbitrage Calculator

Check if two opposing odds create an arbitrage opportunity.

CLV Tracker

Track your Closing Line Value for spread bets.

Learn about CLV strategy →

Fantasy Football Tools

Projection and analysis tools for fantasy football

Target Share Projector

Project fantasy points based on target share and team passing volume.

WOPR Calculator

Calculate Weighted Opportunity Rating for receivers.

WOPR = (1.5 × Target Share) + (0.7 × Air Yards Share)

TD Regression Calculator

Identify players due for touchdown regression based on opportunity.

Trade Value Analyzer

Compare trade values based on PPG and remaining schedule.

DFS Lineup Optimizer

Build optimal DFS lineups based on projected points and salary.

Auction Value Calculator

Calculate fair auction values based on projected points and budget.

Strength of Schedule Tool

Analyze fantasy strength of schedule for position groups.

Bye Week Planner

Plan around bye weeks to minimize roster gaps.

Quick Reference

Key NFL Numbers
  • Avg Points/Game 22.5
  • League Pass Rate 58%
  • Avg EPA/Play 0.00
  • Home Field Advantage ~2.5 pts
  • Avg Total Line 45.5
Betting Break-Even %
  • -110 odds 52.4%
  • -115 odds 53.5%
  • -120 odds 54.5%
  • +100 odds 50.0%
  • +150 odds 40.0%
Fantasy Benchmarks (PPR)
  • Elite QB 22+ PPG
  • RB1 16+ PPG
  • WR1 15+ PPG
  • TE1 12+ PPG
  • Startable Flex 10+ PPG