Data-driven Super Bowl LX and Conference Championship probabilities for all 14 playoff teams
Predictions are generated using EPA differentials, win probability models, strength of schedule adjustments, and 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulations of the playoff bracket.
14-3
14-3
13-4
12-5
| Seed | Team | Record | Conf % | SB % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 14-3 |
|
16.8% |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 12-5 |
|
11.2% |
| 3 | Houston Texans | 11-6 |
|
7.5% |
| 4 | Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6 |
|
5.8% |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | 11-6 |
|
3.9% |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 10-7 |
|
2.1% |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10-7 |
|
1.2% |
| Seed | Team | Record | Conf % | SB % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 14-3 |
|
18.5% |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 13-4 |
|
12.8% |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 12-5 |
|
7.8% |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 10-7 |
|
2.9% |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 11-6 |
|
4.2% |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | 10-7 |
|
1.9% |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 10-7 |
|
1% |
The #1 seeds (Eagles, Bills) have a combined 35.3% Super Bowl probability. The bye week rest and home-field advantage through the conference championship is massive.
Under new coach Ben Johnson, the Bears have transformed into a playoff contender. Their offensive efficiency and young core make them a dangerous team in January.
The Seahawks at 12.8% offer solid value. Mike Macdonald's defense has been elite, and a favorable NFC bracket path could see them in the Super Bowl.
See matchups, game-by-game predictions, and path to the Super Bowl
View Bracket