2025-26 Playoff Predictions

Data-driven Super Bowl LX and Conference Championship probabilities for all 14 playoff teams

Overview Predictions Bracket Analysis Super Bowl
How Our Model Works

Predictions are generated using EPA differentials, win probability models, strength of schedule adjustments, and 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulations of the playoff bracket.

Last Updated: Mar 3, 2026

Super Bowl LX Favorites

TOP PICK
NE
New England Patriots

16-3

31.2%
Super Bowl Win Probability
SEA
Seattle Seahawks

16-3

28.2%
Super Bowl Win Probability
LA
Los Angeles Rams

14-5

21.8%
Super Bowl Win Probability
DEN
Denver Broncos

16-3

18.8%
Super Bowl Win Probability

AFC Predictions

Seed Team Record Conf % SB %
2 New England Patriots 16-3
62.5%
31.2%
1 Denver Broncos 16-3
37.5%
18.8%

NFC Predictions

Seed Team Record Conf % SB %
1 Seattle Seahawks 16-3
57.5%
28.2%
5 Los Angeles Rams 14-5
42.5%
21.8%

Conference Championship Insights

Patriots Road Favorites

New England is a 4.5-point favorite at Denver. Drake Maye has been dominant with 4,394 yards and 31 TDs. The Patriots haven't lost since Week 12.

Seahawks Dominate

Seattle's 41-6 demolition of San Francisco was the most lopsided Divisional win since 2014. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,793 yards, 10 TDs) leads a lethal offense.

Rams Cinderella Run

The #5 seed Rams are peaking at the right time. Matthew Stafford's 46 TD season and two OT road wins make them dangerous. Can they upset Seattle?

Historical Model Performance

Model Accuracy (2020-2025)
  • Correctly identified Super Bowl winner in 4 of 6 years (67%)
  • Super Bowl participant correctly predicted 10 of 12 times (83%)
  • Conference Championship accuracy: 75%
  • Wild Card round accuracy: 71%
Key Model Factors
  • EPA Differential: 35% weight
  • Strength of Schedule: 20% weight
  • Recent Form (Last 5 games): 25% weight
  • Home Field Advantage: 15% weight
  • Injury Adjustments: 5% weight

View the Full Playoff Bracket

See matchups, game-by-game predictions, and path to the Super Bowl

View Bracket