Advanced metrics breakdown for the final 4 Conference Championship teams
| Rank | Team | EPA/Play | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seahawks | +0.168 |
|
| 2 | Broncos | +0.152 |
|
| 3 | Patriots | +0.148 |
|
| 4 | Rams | +0.138 |
|
| Rank | Team | EPA/Play | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriots | -0.098 |
|
| 2 | Seahawks | -0.092 |
|
| 3 | Broncos | -0.082 |
|
| 4 | Rams | -0.055 |
|
Teams generating value through the air
Teams dominating on the ground
Big plays (20+ yard passes, 10+ runs)
| Factor | NE | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| EPA Differential | +0.246 | +0.234 |
| Success Rate | 48.2% | 48.0% |
| Turnover Margin | +15 | +11 |
| Red Zone TD% | 61% | 63% |
| Home Field | Away | Home (+3) |
| Factor | LA | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA Differential | +0.193 | +0.260 |
| Success Rate | 47.5% | 49.2% |
| Turnover Margin | +8 | +13 |
| Red Zone TD% | 66% | 65% |
| Home Field | Away | Home (+3) |
Drake Maye (4,394 yards, 31 TDs) leads New England as 4.5-point road favorites at Denver. Their 28-16 Divisional win over Houston showed a team peaking at the right time. The defense (-0.098 EPA) is the best remaining.
Super Bowl Favorite (31.2%)Seattle's 41-6 destruction of San Francisco was the most lopsided Divisional win since 2014. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,793 yards, 10 TDs) leads the league's best overall offense (+0.168 EPA/play).
NFC Favorite (57.5%)Denver's OT thriller vs Buffalo (33-30) showcased their resilience. Backup QB Jarrett Stidham must manage the game while the defense (+0.082 EPA allowed) and running game control tempo at Mile High.
Home UnderdogMatthew Stafford's remarkable 46-TD season continues with two OT road wins. As a #5 seed, the Rams' elite passing attack (+0.155 EPA) gives them upset potential against Seattle's secondary.
Upset Threat (42.5%)