Head-to-head analytics powered by live ESPN data
| 49ers | Category | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Shanahan | Head Coach | Mike Macdonald |
| Levi's Stadium | Stadium | Lumen Field |
| NFC West | Division | NFC West |
| 5 | Super Bowl Wins | 1 |
| 1946 | Founded | 1976 |
EPA (Expected Points Added) measures the value of each play by calculating how much it changed the team's expected points. Positive EPA means the play helped the offense; negative EPA means it hurt them.
Success Rate measures the percentage of plays that gain positive expected value. A play is successful if it gains: 50%+ of yards needed on 1st down, 70%+ on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd/4th down.
| Metric | SF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Success Rate | 41.6% | 35.7% |
| 3rd Down Conv % | 54.5% | 39.8% |
| Red Zone TD % | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| Explosive Play % | 8% | 8% |
Pythagorean Expectation predicts a team's expected win percentage based on points scored and allowed. Formula: PF2.37 / (PF2.37 + PA2.37). Teams that outperform their Pythagorean expectation often regress the following season.
| Metric | SF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Points Scored (est.) | 391 | 483 |
| Points Allowed (est.) | 94 | 16 |
| Point Differential | +297 | +467 |
| Pythagorean Win % | 96.7% | 100.0% |
| Expected Wins (17 games) | 16.4 | 17 |
| Actual Wins | 12 | 14 |
| Luck Factor | -4.4 | -3.0 |
| Metric | SF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds/Game | 286.0 | 228.1 |
| Completion % (est.) | 65.8% | 62.9% |
| Yards/Attempt (est.) | 8 | 6.9 |
| Avg Depth of Target (est.) | 9 | 8.2 |
| Passer Rating (est.) | 110.3 | 91 |
| Metric | SF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Rush Yds/Game | 75.0 | 123.3 |
| Yards/Carry (est.) | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| Rush Success Rate (est.) | 33% | 42.7% |
| Stuffed Rate (est.) | 21.5% | 16.7% |
RYOE (Rushing Yards Over Expected) uses tracking data to measure how many yards a runner gains above what was expected based on the blocking and defensive positioning.
| Defensive Metric | SF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Points Allowed/Game (est.) | 13.6 | 8.8 |
| Yards Allowed/Game (est.) | 284 | 252 |
| Sacks/Game (est.) | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| Pressure Rate % (est.) | 25.2% | 26.8% |
| Takeaways/Game (est.) | 1.7 | 1.9 |
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) measures a team's efficiency by comparing performance to league average, adjusting for opponent strength.
| Situational Metric | SF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 54.5% | 39.8% |
| 4th Down Go Rate (est.) | 12.3% | 13.9% |
| Red Zone TD % | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| 2-Point Conv % (est.) | 48.5% | 51.2% |
Analytics suggest teams should go for it on 4th down more often than they do. The break-even conversion rate on 4th & 2 from midfield is approximately 45%.
| 49ers | Category | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Shanahan | Head Coach | Mike Macdonald |
| Levi's Stadium | Stadium | Lumen Field |
| NFC West | Division | NFC West |
| 5 | Super Bowl Wins | 1 |
| 1946 | Founded | 1976 |