Kansas City
Chiefs
Buffalo
Bills
Statistical Comparison
Performance Radar
Offensive vs Defensive
Team Information
| Chiefs | Category | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Reid | Head Coach | Sean McDermott |
| GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium | Stadium | Highmark Stadium |
| AFC West | Division | AFC East |
| 4 | Super Bowl Wins | 0 |
| 1960 | Founded | 1960 |
Expected Points Added (EPA) Analysis Learn EPA
EPA (Expected Points Added) measures the value of each play by calculating how much it changed the team's expected points. Positive EPA means the play helped the offense; negative EPA means it hurt them.
Chiefs
Bills
Success Rate & Efficiency Metrics Learn More
Success Rate measures the percentage of plays that gain positive expected value. A play is successful if it gains: 50%+ of yards needed on 1st down, 70%+ on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd/4th down.
| Metric | KC | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Success Rate | 34.8% | 39.8% |
| 3rd Down Conv % | 37.4% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone TD % | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| Explosive Play % | 8% | 8% |
Pythagorean Win Expectation Learn More
Pythagorean Expectation predicts a team's expected win percentage based on points scored and allowed. Formula: PF2.37 / (PF2.37 + PA2.37). Teams that outperform their Pythagorean expectation often regress the following season.
| Metric | KC | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Points Scored (est.) | 362 | 459 |
| Points Allowed (est.) | 574 | 162 |
| Point Differential | -212 | +297 |
| Pythagorean Win % | 25.1% | 92.2% |
| Expected Wins (17 games) | 4.3 | 15.7 |
| Actual Wins | 6 | 12 |
| Luck Factor | +1.7 | -3.7 |
Passing Analytics Learn More
Key Passing Metrics
| Metric | KC | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds/Game | 214.1 | 261.0 |
| Completion % (est.) | 62.2% | 64.6% |
| Yards/Attempt (est.) | 6.6 | 7.5 |
| Avg Depth of Target (est.) | 8.1 | 8.6 |
| Passer Rating (est.) | 86.4 | 102 |
Rushing Analytics Learn More
Key Rushing Metrics
| Metric | KC | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Rush Yds/Game | 106.6 | 79.0 |
| Yards/Carry (est.) | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| Rush Success Rate (est.) | 39.3% | 33.8% |
| Stuffed Rate (est.) | 18.3% | 21.1% |
RYOE (Rushing Yards Over Expected) uses tracking data to measure how many yards a runner gains above what was expected based on the blocking and defensive positioning.
Defensive Analytics Learn More
| Defensive Metric | KC | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Points Allowed/Game (est.) | 28 | 13.6 |
| Yards Allowed/Game (est.) | 380 | 284 |
| Sacks/Game (est.) | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Pressure Rate % (est.) | 20.4% | 25.2% |
| Takeaways/Game (est.) | 1.1 | 1.7 |
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) measures a team's efficiency by comparing performance to league average, adjusting for opponent strength.
Situational Analytics Learn More
| Situational Metric | KC | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 37.4% | 50.0% |
| 4th Down Go Rate (est.) | 11.8% | 13.5% |
| Red Zone TD % | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| 2-Point Conv % (est.) | 47.6% | 50.5% |
Analytics suggest teams should go for it on 4th down more often than they do. The break-even conversion rate on 4th & 2 from midfield is approximately 45%.
Head-to-Head Win Probability Learn WP
If They Played Today
Team Information
| Chiefs | Category | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Reid | Head Coach | Sean McDermott |
| GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium | Stadium | Highmark Stadium |
| AFC West | Division | AFC East |
| 4 | Super Bowl Wins | 0 |
| 1960 | Founded | 1960 |