Finding edges in 1H lines and exploiting scripted play advantages
First half betting can offer advantages over full game betting:
NFL teams typically script their first 15-20 offensive plays. This creates predictable patterns:
Better offensive teams execute their scripted plays more efficiently. The talent and scheme advantage shows up most clearly before the defense adjusts.
| Team Type | 1st Drive TD% | 1st Drive Score% | 1H Spread Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elite offense (top 5 EPA) | 28-32% | 45-50% | Profitable historically |
| Average offense | 20-24% | 35-40% | Mixed results |
| Poor offense (bottom 5 EPA) | 12-16% | 25-30% | Often underperform |
Sportsbooks typically set 1H spreads at roughly half the full game spread:
1H totals are typically 46-48% of the full game total:
Second halves tend to be higher-scoring than first halves due to defensive adjustments and situational play (teams playing catch-up pass more). This is baked into lines, but not always perfectly.
Coaching philosophy heavily impacts 1H performance:
| Coach Type | 1H Tendency | Betting Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Aggressive | Push pace early, take risks | 1H overs, favorites |
| Conservative | Feel out opponent, slow start | 1H unders, underdogs |
| Run-first | Establish run, clock control | 1H unders |
| Adjustment-focused | Better in 2H after seeing tendencies | Fade 1H, consider 2H |
Some bettors prefer 2H betting after seeing first half play. Considerations:
1H Spread ≈ 50% of Full Game
1H Total ≈ 47% of Full Game