Analyzing over/unders with pace, efficiency, and environmental factors
Totals betting offers several advantages over spread betting:
You don't care who wins. You're betting on the combined output of both teams - a fundamentally different analysis than picking sides.
Pace determines how many possessions each team gets. More possessions = more scoring opportunities.
Efficiency determines how well teams convert possessions into points.
| Metric | Good Offense | Average | Poor Offense |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/play | +0.10+ | 0.00 | -0.10- |
| Points/drive | 2.5+ | 2.0 | 1.5- |
| Success rate | 48%+ | 44% | 40%- |
Teams that score TDs vs FGs in the red zone directly impact totals.
Teams converting 60%+ of red zone trips to TDs boost totals. Each TD vs FG adds 4 points.
Teams settling for FGs (under 50% TD rate) depress totals. Multiple FG drives lower combined scores.
Weather is one of the most exploitable factors in totals betting. The public often underestimates its impact.
| Condition | Adjustment | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Wind 15-20 mph | -3 to -5 points | Affects passing, field goals |
| Wind 20+ mph | -5 to -8 points | Significant passing impact |
| Temp under 20°F | -2 to -4 points | Ball handling, kicking affected |
| Rain (light) | -1 to -2 points | Slight passing impact |
| Rain (heavy) | -3 to -5 points | Run-heavy games |
| Snow | Varies | Can increase or decrease scoring |
Lines are often set before weather forecasts are finalized. Check forecasts Sunday morning for late adjustments - the market may not have fully priced in weather changes.
When a heavy favorite (-10+) jumps ahead, they often run the ball and kill clock. This can push games under even when both teams are high-scoring.
The public has consistent biases in totals betting:
Use opponent-adjusted scoring rates, not raw PPG
Team A scores 24 vs avg D, Team B allows 21 = 22.5 for Team A
Fast-fast matchup +3, slow-slow -3
Per the table above
If your number differs by 3+ points, investigate