NFL Player Props Strategy

Why Player Props?

The Edge

Player props are often softer than game lines because sportsbooks have less time/resources to sharpen every individual player market. Deep knowledge of usage, matchups, and game script can create consistent edges.

Advantages

Less efficient markets
Specialized knowledge pays off
More betting opportunities
Can correlate with game bets

Challenges

Higher variance
Lower limits at sportsbooks
Injury risk
Game script dependency

Quarterback Props

Passing Yards Analysis

Key Factors:

Game script projection: Will team be trailing? Trailing = more passing
Opponent pass defense: EPA/dropback allowed, yards per attempt allowed
Pace of play: Fast games = more passing attempts
Indoor vs outdoor: Dome games favor passing
Wind: High wind depresses passing volume

Quick Formula:

Projected Yards = (Attempts × YPA) adjusted for matchup and weather

Example: If a QB averages 35 attempts × 7.5 YPA = 262.5 yards baseline. Against a bottom-5 pass defense (+8% adjustment) = ~283 yards projected.

Passing TD Props

TD props have high variance but can be exploitable:

Red zone opportunities: More drives = more TD chances
TD rate normalization: QBs with unsustainably high/low TD rates regress
Goal line usage: Some teams run more at the goal line

Variance warning: TD props are essentially binary outcomes with high variance. Size bets accordingly.

Running Back Props

Rushing Yards Analysis

Primary Factors:

Opportunity Share

What % of team carries does this RB get? 70%+ share is ideal.

Opponent Run Defense

EPA/rush allowed, yards before contact, run stuff rate.

Game Script

Favored teams run more. Trailing teams abandon the run.

Offensive Line

Run blocking grades, injuries to key linemen.

Best spots: High-usage RBs on favored teams against bottom-10 run defenses.

Receiving Props for RBs

RB receiving props can be softer than rushing props:

Target share: What % of team targets go to RB?
Routes run: How often is RB on the field for passing plays?
Matchup: LB coverage ability is key
Game script: Trailing = more checkdowns to RB

Receiver Props

Receiving Yards Analysis

The Target Share Framework

Target share is the most predictive metric for receiver production:

Target Share	Classification	Typical Lines
30%+	Alpha	70-100+ yards
20-30%	WR2	50-70 yards
15-20%	WR3	35-55 yards
Under 15%	Depth	20-40 yards

Additional Factors:

Air yards share: Deep threats get more yards per target
Slot vs outside: Slot receivers more consistent
CB matchup: Shadow coverage, CB injuries
Team passing volume: High-volume offenses boost all receivers

Receptions Props

Reception props often have value because they're high-frequency events:

Over Targets

High target share receivers
Slot receivers (higher catch rate)
PPR-style pass catchers
Teams likely to trail

Under Targets

Deep threat specialists
Inconsistent target share
Bad weather games
Run-heavy game scripts

Anytime Touchdown Props

Anytime TD props are popular but require careful analysis:

Value Indicators:

RZ Targets

Red zone target share

GL Carries

Goal line usage

Scoring Opps

Team red zone trips

Math check: If odds are +150 (implied 40%), the player needs to score in 40%+ of games for positive EV. Check their actual TD rate over 10+ games.

Prop Correlations

Understanding correlations helps build same-game parlays and avoid contradictory bets:

Positive Correlations:

QB passing yards + WR receiving yards (same team)
Team total Over + QB passing yards Over
Big underdog + QB passing yards Over (garbage time)
RB rushing yards + team spread (favorites run more)

Negative Correlations:

RB rushing yards + trailing game script
Multiple WRs on same team going Over
QB passing yards + game Under

SGP Warning: Sportsbooks price correlations into same-game parlays. The odds are often worse than they appear.

Build Your Props Strategy

Start with one prop type and master it before expanding.

Game Script Guide EV Calculator

Key Metrics

Target Share % of team targets
Air Yards Share Deep threat indicator
Snap Share Playing time
Red Zone Opportunity Share TD upside
Routes Run Pass play involvement