Every way to bet on football, from basic to advanced
The fundamental bets every NFL bettor should know.
The most popular NFL bet. The favorite must win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than the spread or win outright.
Simply pick who wins. No spread involved. Favorites require larger bets; underdogs offer larger payouts.
Bet whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a set number.
Factors to consider: Weather, pace of play, defensive matchups, indoor/outdoor, injuries to key offensive players.
Combining multiple selections into single bets.
Combine 2+ bets into one. All selections must win for the parlay to pay. Higher risk, higher reward.
| Legs | Approx. Odds | $10 Pays | True Break-Even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | +264 | $36 | 27.5% |
| 3 | +600 | $70 | 14.3% |
| 4 | +1228 | $133 | 7.5% |
| 5 | +2435 | $254 | 3.9% |
A parlay where you adjust spreads in your favor (usually 6, 6.5, or 7 points) in exchange for reduced odds.
Combine multiple bets from the same game (player props, spreads, totals) into one parlay.
Bets on specific events or player performances within a game.
Bet on individual player statistics: passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, touchdowns, etc.
Bets on game events not directly tied to the final score.
Long-term bets on season-long outcomes.
Bet while the game is in progress with constantly updating odds.
| Bet Type | House Edge | Skill Factor | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Low (~4.5%) | Medium-High | Regular betting |
| Moneyline | Low-Medium | Medium | Underdogs, close games |
| Totals | Low (~4.5%) | Medium-High | Weather games, pace analysis |
| Parlays | High (20-30%) | Low | Entertainment only |
| Teasers | Medium | Medium | Key number strategy |
| Player Props | Medium | High | Deep player knowledge |
| Futures | Medium-High | Medium | Long-term value plays |
| Live Betting | Medium-High | High | Experienced bettors |
Abstract descriptions only go so far. Here is what the basic bet types have actually paid, computed from the complete nflverse game log bundled with this site (7,276 completed games, 1999–2025; moneylines recorded from 2006):
| If you had blindly bet… | Sample | Result | Verdict at typical prices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Every favorite against the spread | 7,245 games | Covered 48.7% | Loses (need 52.4% at −110) |
| Every underdog against the spread | 7,245 games | Covered 51.3% | Loses (need 52.4% at −110) |
| Every over | 7,276 games | Hit 49.4% (push 1.5%) | Loses |
| Every under | 7,276 games | Hit 50.6% (push 1.5%) | Loses |
| Every moneyline favorite, −150 to −199 | 1,238 games | Won 58.4% vs. 63.3% break-even | Loses |
| Every moneyline dog (same games) | 1,238 games | Won 41.4% vs. 39.4% avg break-even | Historically +5.7% — see note |
Data: nflverse games.csv bundled with this site, computed by the author. Cover rates exclude pushes.
The pattern is the point: nearly every naive strategy on every bet type lands under its break-even, and the bet types differ mainly in how you lose by default — slowly at −110 on spreads and totals, faster on parlays where the margins compound (see below). The one positive cell — moneyline dogs against mid-priced favorites returning about +5.7% over 2006–2025 — is the classic favorite bias showing up in this dataset. Treat it as history, not a live edge: it spans 20 seasons of drifting prices, and books have repriced moneylines substantially over that span. Choosing a bet type is choosing a variance profile, not an edge.
Take the parlay table above and make the house edge explicit. Assume each leg is a fair coin (50% — roughly right, since spread sides cover 48.7–51.3% historically) and compare what a fair book would pay against a typical payout schedule:
| Legs | True chance (0.5ⁿ) | Fair payout | Typical payout | House keeps |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 25.0% | +300 | +260 | 10.0% |
| 3 | 12.5% | +700 | +600 | 12.5% |
| 4 | 6.25% | +1500 | +1100 | 25.0% |
Exact formula math: house keep = 1 − (true probability × decimal payout). Payout columns show common U.S. fixed-odds schedules; books that price parlays multiplicatively from −110 keep about 4.8% per leg compounded instead.
A single −110 bet gives the book about 4.5 cents of each dollar wagered; a four-leg fixed-odds parlay can give up five times that. That asymmetry — not any moral judgment about parlays being “for suckers” — is why the comparison table above rates them as entertainment-priced. Full workings on the parlay page.
Keep reading: key numbers for why half-points matter on spreads and teasers, and favorite win rates for the moneyline bands in full.
Nothing here is betting advice, and no number on this page predicts any single game. Sports betting is legal only in some jurisdictions and only for adults (21+ in most U.S. states). If betting stops being entertainment, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Read our full disclaimer.
For beginners, focus 90% of your bets on:
Leave parlays and exotic bets until you've built a winning record on straight bets.