Everything you need to know to get started with NFL betting
The point spread is the most popular way to bet on NFL games. It levels the playing field between two teams by giving the underdog a head start.
| Final Score | Chiefs -7.5 | Broncos +7.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs 31, Broncos 20 | WIN (won by 11) | LOSE |
| Chiefs 24, Broncos 21 | LOSE (won by 3) | WIN |
| Broncos 17, Chiefs 14 | LOSE | WIN |
Moneyline bets are the simplest form of betting - you just pick who wins. No point spreads involved.
The number shows how much you must bet to win $100.
-180: Bet $180 to profit $100
The number shows how much you win on a $100 bet.
+155: Bet $100 to profit $155
Totals betting ignores who wins - you're betting on the combined score of both teams.
| Final Score | Combined | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Packers 31, Lions 24 | 55 | OVER wins |
| Packers 17, Lions 14 | 31 | UNDER wins |
| Packers 27, Lions 21 | 48 | UNDER wins (under 48.5) |
The "vig" (short for vigorish) or "juice" is the commission sportsbooks charge. It's how they make money.
At -110 odds, you bet $110 to win $100. This means:
At -110 odds, you need to win 52.4% of your bets just to break even. This is why finding an edge matters.
Certain numbers appear as final margins more often in NFL games due to scoring increments (TD = 7, FG = 3).
In the bundled nflverse game log (7,276 completed games, 1999–2025), 15.1% of games were decided by exactly 3 points and 9.0% by exactly 7. This is why spreads of -3 and -7 are so significant.
Now that you understand the basics, dive deeper into NFL betting.
The most common beginner mistake is treating “who will win?” as the question. The spread already answers that one. In the complete nflverse game log bundled with this site — 7,276 completed games, 1999–2025 — favorites won two-thirds of the time straight up, yet covered the spread slightly less than half the time:
| Closing spread (favorite laying…) | Games | Favorite won the game | Favorite covered the spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 to 2.5 points | 1,450 | 52.8% | 49.8% |
| Exactly 3 | 1,153 | 58.0% | 47.6% |
| 3.5 to 6.5 | 2,440 | 66.6% | 49.0% |
| Exactly 7 | 491 | 75.6% | 50.3% |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 808 | 75.9% | 47.3% |
| 10 to 13.5 | 688 | 82.8% | 48.1% |
| 14 or more | 215 | 91.2% | 47.3% |
| All favorites | 7,245 | 66.4% | 48.7% |
Data: nflverse games.csv bundled with this site (7,276 completed games, 1999–2025; 31 pick'em games excluded), computed by the author. Cover rates exclude pushes.
Read the two right-hand columns together and the whole product makes sense: the market moves the win/lose question (which favorites dominate) onto a number where both sides are close to a coin flip. Every cover rate in that column sits between 47% and 51% — below the 52.4% you need at −110. That is the house's business model, and it is why everything else on this page (vig, key numbers, line shopping) matters more than your opinion about who wins.
Keep reading: key numbers, favorite win rates by spread, and do favorites cover?
Nothing here is betting advice, and no number on this page predicts any single game. Sports betting is legal only in some jurisdictions and only for adults (21+ in most U.S. states). If betting stops being entertainment, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Read our full disclaimer.