Free interactive calculators for football analytics, sports betting, and fantasy football
What these tools are. Every calculator on this page runs entirely in your browser on the numbers you type. Several of them — odds conversion, expected value, the Kelly criterion, parlay and hold math, success rate, red-zone and third-down rates — are exact arithmetic: there is one right answer and the tool computes it.
The situational tools are simplified illustrative models. The expected-points, fourth-down, and win-probability calculators use hand-set coefficients chosen to reproduce the shape of published curves, not coefficients fitted to data. The exact formula is printed under each one so you can see what is being computed. A fitted expected-points model needs play-by-play data; the dataset this site ships (/data/games.csv) is game-level, so no fitted model is claimed here. For a real one, use nflfastR. The numbers computed from the bundled dataset live in the explainers, where each figure states its data pull.
Essential calculators for understanding NFL play-by-play analytics
An illustrative expected-points curve: how many points a drive from this down, distance, and field position is worth on average.
Simplified illustrative model, not a fitted one. EP = EP(1st & 10 here) − down penalty − 0.05 per yard to go beyond 10. The 1st-&-10 curve is piecewise linear through five hand-set anchors: own goal −0.6, own 20 +0.6, midfield +2.0, opponent 20 +4.2, opponent 1 +6.4. Down penalties: 1st 0, 2nd 0.45, 3rd 1.05, 4th 1.75.
Go for it, punt, or kick? Each option is priced in expected points from the offense’s point of view, with the opponent’s expected points counted against you.
Simplified illustrative model, not a fitted one. Go = conv% × EP(where you would be) − (1−conv%) × EP(opponent at the spot). FG = fg% × 3 − (1−fg%) × EP(opponent at the kick spot, or their 20). Punt = −EP(opponent 40 net yards downfield, or their 20). Conversion rate = 68% on 4th-and-1 decaying as e−0.085×(yards−1); field-goal rate = 1 / (1 + e(kick−56)/6.5) with kick = yards to goal + 17, and no attempt beyond 68 yards. The same expected-points curve as the calculator above.
Learn about fourth down analytics →
4th Down Calculator on its own page, with a worked example →
A logistic estimate of win probability from the score margin, the time left, and which side has the ball. There is no field-position input.
Simplified illustrative model, not a fitted one. WP = 1 / (1 + e−m/s), where m = score margin + 1.5 if you have the ball (−1.5 if you do not) and s = 1.15 × (minutes + 1)0.55 stands in for how much scoring is still to come.
Learn about win probability →
Win Probability Calculator on its own page, with a worked example →
Calculate optimal pass rate based on situation and efficiency metrics.
Compare offensive and defensive EPA metrics between two teams.
Calculate offensive success rate based on down and distance thresholds.
Success = 40%+ of yards needed on 1st, 60%+ on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th
Analyze red zone TD rate vs league average with regression indicator.
Break down third down efficiency by distance category.
Compare actual turnovers to expected based on opportunities.
Calculate expected value, optimal bet sizes, and convert odds formats
Calculate if a bet has positive expected value based on your estimated probability.
Calculate optimal bet size for long-term bankroll growth.
Convert between American, Decimal, and Fractional odds formats.
Calculate parlay payouts and implied probabilities.
Calculate optimal hedge bet to guarantee profit or minimize loss.
Calculate the sportsbook's hold percentage (vig) on a market.
Calculate the win percentage needed to break even at given odds.
Check if two opposing odds create an arbitrage opportunity.
Projection and analysis tools for fantasy football
Calculate Weighted Opportunity Rating for receivers.
WOPR = (1.5 × Target Share) + (0.7 × Air Yards Share)
Identify players due for touchdown regression based on opportunity.
Compare trade values based on PPG and remaining schedule.
Build optimal DFS lineups based on projected points and salary.
Calculate fair auction values based on projected points and budget.
Analyze fantasy strength of schedule for position groups.
Plan around bye weeks to minimize roster gaps.
Nothing here is betting advice, and no number on this page predicts any single game. Sports betting is legal only in some jurisdictions and only for adults (21+ in most U.S. states). If betting stops being entertainment, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Read the full disclaimer.