Plain-English guides to the NFL's most important advanced metrics — the formulas, what they reveal, and the caveats.
Published June 6, 2026 · NFL Analytics
Every advanced NFL number you hear on a broadcast has a real definition, a formula, and a set of caveats. These explainers build each one up from scratch — no jargon, no invented statistics, just how the metric works and how to read it. New on June 6, 2026.
How football's opponent-adjusted efficiency metric works — and how to read a number that lives on a percentage scale.
Three efficiency metrics, one decision: what each measures, where they agree, and why they sometimes disagree.
How tracking data turns every throw into a probability — and isolates a quarterback's accuracy from scheme.
The same quarterback, two scales: how each rating is built and what each one actually rewards.
Why points scored and allowed predict next season better than this season's win-loss record.
Breaking a pass-catcher's production into opportunity, depth of target, and yards after the catch.
What win-probability math really recommends on fourth down — and why teams still punt too much.
Opponent adjustment and the Simple Rating System, so you can compare teams on a level field.
One formula that rewards touchdowns, punishes interceptions, counts sacks — and predicts winning better than passer rating.
Raw rushing yards reward blocking and volume. How tracking data isolates what the back actually added.
Why pressure rate beats sack totals, what win rates measure, and the hard problem of dividing sack blame.