A transparent Elo model states a probability for every game. The numbers lock when published, the results get attached as they happen, and the running grade stays on this page all season - hits, misses, and all.
By C. B. Zakarian · Updated Nov 11
Updated with results through Monday, November 9 · next update after the Thursday, November 12 games
This page is a ledger, not a list of tips. Before each week the model — a fully-stated walk-forward Elo that reads nothing but final scores — publishes a win probability for every game. Those numbers freeze at publication (the JSON is served raw, CSV here), results attach as games finish, and the scoreboard below keeps the season-long grade. It knows nothing about rosters, injuries, or quarterbacks — which matters — and it will be wrong roughly one game in three, because in its 16-season backtest that is exactly how often it was wrong. Season-long chances built from the same ratings are on the playoff odds page, and the schedule each team has left is ranked on the strength-of-schedule page.
83 of 133 decided games called correctly (62.4%), Brier score 0.2186 across 134 graded games (0.25 = coin flip; lower is better). The 16-season backtest averaged 64.7% and 0.2205 — judge us against that.
Locked Nov 10. Probabilities are the model's, stated from each side's rating (no home edge applied at neutral sites); the favorite shown is simply the side above 50%.
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result (pending) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 (Thu) | Washington Commanders at New York Giants | 1425 / 1479 | 64% NYG | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | New England Patriots at Detroit Lions neutral site | 1564 / 1600 | 55% DET | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | Buffalo Bills at New York Jets | 1706 / 1332 | 87% BUF | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints | 1421 / 1410 | 55% NO | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns | 1549 / 1436 | 59% HOU | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans | 1644 / 1296 | 85% JAX | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons | 1574 / 1435 | 63% KC | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts | 1366 / 1393 | 61% IND | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers | 1593 / 1583 | 55% GB | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals | 1612 / 1381 | 74% LA | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders | 1645 / 1402 | 75% SEA | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys | 1636 / 1468 | 67% SF | — |
| Nov 15 (Sun) | Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals | 1576 / 1583 | 58% CIN | — |
| Nov 16 (Mon) | Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens | 1385 / 1487 | 70% BAL | — |
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 (Thu) | Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens | 1618 / 1513 | 58% JAX | JAX 33–10 ✓ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons neutral site | 1563 / 1454 | 65% CIN | CIN 34–17 ✓ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints | 1443 / 1403 | 51% NO | NO 23–22 ✓ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts | 1452 / 1410 | 51% IND | DAL 27–23 ✗ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers | 1641 / 1431 | 72% DEN | DEN 26–21 ✓ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins | 1587 / 1379 | 72% DET | DET 19–9 ✓ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders | 1598 / 1438 | 66% LA | LA 20–13 ✓ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles | 1456 / 1438 | 54% PHI | NYG 19–11 ✗ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs | 1342 / 1564 | 83% KC | KC 35–12 ✓ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers | 1524 / 1409 | 60% HOU | HOU 44–22 ✓ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers | 1412 / 1626 | 82% SF | SF 38–17 ✓ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks | 1389 / 1637 | 85% SEA | SEA 17–3 ✓ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots | 1547 / 1600 | 64% NE | GB 45–27 ✗ |
| Nov 8 (Sun) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears | 1498 / 1617 | 72% CHI | CHI 27–24 ✓ |
| Nov 9 (Mon) | Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings | 1677 / 1621 | 51% BUF | BUF 23–6 ✓ |
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 (Thu) | Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers | 1443 / 1534 | 69% GB | GB 27–19 ✓ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys | 1370 / 1470 | 70% DAL | ARI 33–30 ✗ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1479 / 1473 | 56% TB | TB 16–0 ✓ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills | 1529 / 1662 | 74% BUF | BUF 36–10 ✓ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers | 1460 / 1558 | 70% PIT | PIT 27–6 ✓ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars | 1423 / 1604 | 79% JAX | JAX 42–7 ✓ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets | 1393 / 1360 | 52% NYJ | LV 38–33 ✗ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | 1638 / 1570 | 53% MIN | DET 19–15 ✗ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals | 1302 / 1558 | 85% CIN | CIN 43–36 ✓ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams | 1421 / 1586 | 77% LA | LA 24–9 ✓ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos | 1575 / 1630 | 64% DEN | DEN 28–24 ✓ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | 1590 / 1389 | 71% NE | NE 24–19 ✓ |
| Nov 1 (Sun) | Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders | 1468 / 1408 | 52% PHI | WAS 27–10 ✗ |
| Nov 2 (Mon) | Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks | 1580 / 1675 | 70% SEA | CHI 34–17 ✗ |
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 (Thu) | New England Patriots at Chicago Bears | 1610 / 1560 | 50% NE | CHI 30–24 ✗ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints neutral site | 1546 / 1415 | 68% PIT | PIT 16–10 ✓ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens | 1520 / 1567 | 63% BAL | CIN 35–13 ✗ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans | 1450 / 1312 | 63% CLE | CLE 27–24 ✓ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings | 1430 / 1632 | 81% MIN | MIN 16–10 ✓ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | 1374 / 1376 | 57% NYJ | MIA 28–25 ✗ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | New York Giants at Houston Texans | 1429 / 1550 | 73% HOU | NYG 27–21 ✗ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons | 1656 / 1448 | 72% SF | ATL 29–20 ✗ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers | 1431 / 1486 | 64% CAR | TB 43–13 ✗ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals | 1617 / 1383 | 74% DEN | DEN 30–16 ✓ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions | 1546 / 1559 | 59% DET | DET 20–17 ✓ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders | 1568 / 1411 | 65% LA | LA 35–21 ✓ |
| Oct 25 (Sun) | Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks | 1594 / 1656 | 65% SEA | SEA 20–3 ✓ |
| Oct 26 (Mon) | Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | 1434 / 1504 | 66% PHI | DAL 38–21 ✗ |
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 (Thu) | Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos | 1670 / 1603 | 53% SEA | DEN 17–14 ✗ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars neutral site | 1534 / 1621 | 62% JAX | HOU 34–31 ✗ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns | 1584 / 1433 | 64% BAL | CLE 13–10 ✗ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles | 1454 / 1536 | 68% PHI | CAR 25–14 ✗ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | 1540 / 1468 | 53% CHI | CHI 31–23 ✓ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | New Orleans Saints at New York Giants | 1389 / 1455 | 66% NYG | NO 34–27 ✗ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | New York Jets at New England Patriots | 1382 / 1603 | 82% NE | NE 26–19 ✓ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1528 / 1450 | 54% PIT | PIT 26–19 ✓ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts | 1284 / 1458 | 78% IND | TEN 26–20 ✗ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams | 1367 / 1585 | 82% LA | ARI 18–16 ✗ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders | 1655 / 1418 | 75% BUF | BUF 33–30 ✓ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs | 1433 / 1581 | 76% KC | KC 22–6 ✓ |
| Oct 18 (Sun) | Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers | 1448 / 1531 | 68% GB | GB 23–13 ✓ |
| Oct 19 (Mon) | Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers | 1414 / 1651 | 84% SF | SF 23–17 ✓ |
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 (Thu) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys | 1423 / 1475 | 64% DAL | TB 24–16 ✗ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | 1545 / 1612 | 66% JAX | JAX 19–17 ✓ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers | 1574 / 1497 | 54% CHI | GB 31–7 ✗ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | 1504 / 1390 | 59% CIN | CIN 31–24 ✓ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Cleveland Browns at New York Jets | 1453 / 1362 | 56% CLE | NYJ 17–12 ✗ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | 1518 / 1300 | 73% HOU | HOU 26–3 ✓ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers | 1477 / 1508 | 61% PIT | PIT 34–22 ✓ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | 1432 / 1589 | 76% NE | NE 45–17 ✓ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | 1619 / 1401 | 73% MIN | MIN 23–13 ✓ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | New York Giants at Washington Commanders | 1455 / 1414 | 51% WAS | Tie 27–27 |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | 1589 / 1447 | 63% DEN | DEN 23–17 ✓ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | 1537 / 1389 | 64% DET | DET 45–21 ✓ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | 1634 / 1688 | 64% SEA | SF 32–29 ✗ |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons | 1566 / 1487 | 54% BAL | BAL 30–23 ✓ |
| Oct 12 (Mon) | Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams | 1641 / 1599 | 51% LA | BUF 37–34 ✗ |
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | 1409 / 1436 | 61% NYG | NYG 36–24 ✓ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | 1455 / 1538 | 68% HOU | DAL 34–30 ✗ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1483 / 1437 | 50% TB | GB 17–14 ✗ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | 1596 / 1520 | 54% JAX | JAX 22–17 ✓ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | 1581 / 1562 | 54% PHI | LA 24–20 ✗ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | 1571 / 1659 | 69% BUF | NE 29–26 ✗ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | New York Jets at Chicago Bears | 1371 / 1565 | 80% CHI | CHI 23–12 ✓ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | 1305 / 1561 | 85% BAL | BAL 24–18 ✓ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | 1396 / 1614 | 82% MIN | MIN 15–10 ✓ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | 1609 / 1614 | 58% SF | SF 24–14 ✓ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | 1571 / 1443 | 61% KC | KC 30–27 ✓ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | 1453 / 1681 | 83% SEA | SEA 30–23 ✓ |
| Oct 4 (Sun) | Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | 1560 / 1431 | 62% DET | CAR 32–26 ✗ |
| Oct 5 (Mon) | Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | 1454 / 1434 | 54% NO | ATL 45–24 ✗ |
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 (Thu) | Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers | 1413 / 1524 | 71% GB | ATL 35–14 ✗ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns | 1443 / 1426 | 54% CLE | CLE 21–18 ✓ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 1532 / 1511 | 54% PIT | PIT 30–27 ✓ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | 1551 / 1436 | 60% HOU | IND 19–17 ✗ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins | 1551 / 1415 | 62% KC | KC 24–10 ✓ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills | 1462 / 1651 | 80% BUF | BUF 24–16 ✓ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars | 1604 / 1563 | 51% JAX | JAX 35–6 ✓ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | New York Jets at Detroit Lions | 1380 / 1552 | 78% DET | DET 31–24 ✓ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | 1697 / 1427 | 78% SEA | WAS 33–31 ✗ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Tennessee Titans at New York Giants | 1315 / 1426 | 71% NYG | NYG 12–7 ✓ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | 1416 / 1607 | 80% SF | SF 36–30 ✓ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1599 / 1451 | 64% MIN | MIN 23–16 ✓ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys neutral site | 1551 / 1465 | 62% BAL | BAL 34–31 ✓ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | 1416 / 1461 | 63% NO | LV 35–27 ✗ |
| Sep 27 (Sun) | Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos | 1595 / 1595 | 57% DEN | DEN 30–26 ✓ |
| Sep 28 (Mon) | Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | 1593 / 1534 | 52% PHI | CHI 27–7 ✗ |
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 (Thu) | Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills | 1567 / 1636 | 66% BUF | BUF 41–31 ✓ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | 1400 / 1456 | 64% ATL | CAR 34–3 ✗ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans | 1497 / 1586 | 69% HOU | CIN 20–6 ✗ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1405 / 1472 | 66% TB | CLE 23–19 ✗ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | 1513 / 1390 | 61% GB | GB 20–17 ✓ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears | 1579 / 1554 | 53% CHI | MIN 9–3 ✗ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens | 1432 / 1579 | 76% BAL | NO 24–17 ✗ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans | 1587 / 1321 | 78% PHI | PHI 24–20 ✓ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots | 1531 / 1584 | 64% NE | NE 20–3 ✓ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos | 1580 / 1578 | 56% DEN | DEN 20–13 ✓ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | 1382 / 1496 | 72% LAC | LV 26–14 ✗ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers | 1428 / 1594 | 77% SF | SF 35–13 ✓ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | 1683 / 1430 | 77% SEA | SEA 31–7 ✓ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys | 1453 / 1439 | 55% DAL | DAL 37–20 ✓ |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs | 1443 / 1543 | 70% KC | KC 33–30 ✓ |
| Sep 21 (Mon) | New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams | 1441 / 1580 | 75% LA | LA 28–6 ✓ |
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 (Wed) | New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks | 1593 / 1675 | 68% SEA | SEA 13–10 ✓ |
| Sep 10 (Thu) | San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams neutral site | 1559 / 1615 | 58% LA | SF 27–7 ✗ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | 1470 / 1516 | 63% PIT | PIT 20–13 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts | 1553 / 1469 | 55% BAL | BAL 41–23 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans | 1616 / 1606 | 55% HOU | BUF 36–31 ✗ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers | 1529 / 1426 | 58% CHI | CHI 59–37 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars | 1420 / 1566 | 75% JAX | JAX 34–10 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions | 1435 / 1564 | 73% DET | DET 31–30 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | New York Jets at Tennessee Titans | 1362 / 1350 | 55% TEN | NYJ 23–10 ✗ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals | 1488 / 1480 | 56% CIN | CIN 33–27 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers | 1394 / 1531 | 74% LAC | ARI 26–14 ✗ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 1536 / 1556 | 60% MIN | MIN 39–22 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders | 1459 / 1351 | 59% MIA | LV 27–13 ✗ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | 1458 / 1581 | 73% PHI | PHI 24–22 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants | 1461 / 1419 | 51% NYG | NYG 28–20 ✓ |
| Sep 14 (Mon) | Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 1613 / 1508 | 58% DEN | KC 31–10 ✗ |
post-2025, after 33% preseason regression toward 1505 — the scale is relative (average ≈ 1505); a 100-point edge at a neutral site is about 64%. The same numbers, ranked with movement and tiers, live on the power rankings page.
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 1706 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 1650 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 1645 |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1644 |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 1636 |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | 1624 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Rams | 1612 |
| 8 | Detroit Lions | 1600 |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | 1593 |
| 10 | Green Bay Packers | 1583 |
| 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1583 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1576 |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1574 |
| 14 | New England Patriots | 1564 |
| 15 | Houston Texans | 1549 |
| 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1491 |
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Baltimore Ravens | 1487 |
| 18 | New York Giants | 1479 |
| 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 1468 |
| 20 | Cleveland Browns | 1436 |
| 21 | Atlanta Falcons | 1435 |
| 22 | Washington Commanders | 1425 |
| 23 | Carolina Panthers | 1421 |
| 24 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1415 |
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | 1410 |
| 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | 1402 |
| 27 | Indianapolis Colts | 1393 |
| 28 | Los Angeles Chargers | 1385 |
| 29 | Arizona Cardinals | 1381 |
| 30 | Miami Dolphins | 1366 |
| 31 | New York Jets | 1332 |
| 32 | Tennessee Titans | 1296 |
Sources: nflverse public game log bundled at data/games.csv; the model and ledger are generated by the site's build (our model script) with no hand-entered numbers anywhere.
Nothing here is betting advice, and no number on this page predicts any single game. Sports betting is legal only in some jurisdictions and only for adults (21+ in most U.S. states). If betting stops being entertainment, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Read the full disclaimer.