A transparent Elo model states a probability for every game. The numbers lock when published, the results get attached as they happen, and the running grade stays on this page all season - hits, misses, and all.
By C. B. Zakarian · Updated Sep 15
This page is a ledger, not a tout sheet. Before each week the model — a fully-stated walk-forward Elo that reads nothing but final scores — publishes a win probability for every game. Those numbers freeze at publication (the JSON is served raw, CSV here), results attach as games finish, and the scoreboard below keeps the season-long grade. It knows nothing about rosters, injuries, or quarterbacks — which matters — and it will be wrong roughly one game in three, because in its 16-season backtest that is exactly how often it was wrong. This is not betting advice; for why beating the closing line is a different and harder claim, see how accurate the spread actually is.
10 of 16 decided games called correctly (62.5%), Brier score 0.2251 across 16 graded games (0.25 = coin flip; lower is better). The 16-season backtest averaged 64.7% and 0.2205 — judge us against that.
Locked Sep 15. Probabilities are the model's, stated from each side's rating; the favorite shown is simply the side above 50%.
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result (pending) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 (Thu) | Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills | 1567 / 1636 | 66% BUF | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | 1400 / 1456 | 64% ATL | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans | 1497 / 1586 | 69% HOU | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1405 / 1472 | 66% TB | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | 1513 / 1390 | 61% GB | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears | 1579 / 1554 | 53% CHI | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens | 1432 / 1579 | 76% BAL | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans | 1587 / 1321 | 78% PHI | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots | 1531 / 1584 | 64% NE | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos | 1580 / 1578 | 56% DEN | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | 1382 / 1496 | 72% LAC | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers | 1428 / 1594 | 77% SF | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | 1683 / 1430 | 77% SEA | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys | 1453 / 1439 | 55% DAL | — |
| Sep 20 (Sun) | Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs | 1443 / 1543 | 70% KC | — |
| Sep 21 (Mon) | New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams | 1441 / 1580 | 75% LA | — |
| Kickoff | Game | Elo (away/home) | Model favorite | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 (Wed) | New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks | 1593 / 1675 | 68% SEA | SEA 13–10 ✓ |
| Sep 10 (Thu) | San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams neutral site | 1559 / 1615 | 58% LA | SF 27–7 ✗ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | 1470 / 1516 | 63% PIT | PIT 20–13 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts | 1553 / 1469 | 55% BAL | BAL 41–23 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans | 1616 / 1606 | 55% HOU | BUF 36–31 ✗ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers | 1529 / 1426 | 58% CHI | CHI 59–37 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars | 1420 / 1566 | 75% JAX | JAX 34–10 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions | 1435 / 1564 | 73% DET | DET 31–30 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | New York Jets at Tennessee Titans | 1362 / 1350 | 55% TEN | NYJ 23–10 ✗ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals | 1488 / 1480 | 56% CIN | CIN 33–27 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers | 1394 / 1531 | 74% LAC | ARI 26–14 ✗ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 1536 / 1556 | 60% MIN | MIN 39–22 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders | 1459 / 1351 | 59% MIA | LV 27–13 ✗ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | 1458 / 1581 | 73% PHI | PHI 24–22 ✓ |
| Sep 13 (Sun) | Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants | 1461 / 1419 | 51% NYG | NYG 28–20 ✓ |
| Sep 14 (Mon) | Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 1613 / 1508 | 58% DEN | KC 31–10 ✗ |
post-2025, after 33% preseason regression toward 1505 — the scale is relative (average ≈ 1505); a 100-point edge at a neutral site is about 64%. The same numbers, ranked with movement and tiers, live on the power rankings page.
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 1683 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 1636 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 1594 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1587 |
| 5 | Houston Texans | 1586 |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 1584 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1580 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | 1580 |
| 9 | Baltimore Ravens | 1579 |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 1579 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | 1578 |
| 12 | Detroit Lions | 1567 |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | 1554 |
| 14 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1543 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1531 |
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | 1513 |
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1497 |
| 18 | Los Angeles Chargers | 1496 |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1472 |
| 20 | Atlanta Falcons | 1456 |
| 21 | Washington Commanders | 1453 |
| 22 | Indianapolis Colts | 1443 |
| 23 | New York Giants | 1441 |
| 24 | Dallas Cowboys | 1439 |
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | 1432 |
| 26 | Arizona Cardinals | 1430 |
| 27 | Miami Dolphins | 1428 |
| 28 | Cleveland Browns | 1405 |
| 29 | Carolina Panthers | 1400 |
| 30 | New York Jets | 1390 |
| 31 | Las Vegas Raiders | 1382 |
| 32 | Tennessee Titans | 1321 |
Sources: nflverse public game log bundled at data/games.csv;
the model and ledger are generated by the site's build (nfl_elo.py) with no hand-entered numbers anywhere.
Nothing here is betting advice, and no number on this page predicts any single game. Sports betting is legal only in some jurisdictions and only for adults (21+ in most U.S. states). If betting stops being entertainment, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Read the full disclaimer.