NFL Predictions 2026: Every Game, Frozen Before Kickoff, Graded After

This page is a ledger, not a tout sheet. Before each week the model — a fully-stated walk-forward Elo that reads nothing but final scores — publishes a win probability for every game. Those numbers freeze at publication (the JSON is served raw, CSV here), results attach as games finish, and the scoreboard below keeps the season-long grade. It knows nothing about rosters, injuries, or quarterbacks — which matters — and it will be wrong roughly one game in three, because in its 16-season backtest that is exactly how often it was wrong. This is not betting advice; for why beating the closing line is a different and harder claim, see how accurate the spread actually is.

The scoreboard

20 of 33 decided games called correctly (60.6%), Brier score 0.2395 across 33 graded games (0.25 = coin flip; lower is better). The 16-season backtest averaged 64.7% and 0.2205 — judge us against that.

Week 3

Locked Sep 22. Probabilities are the model's, stated from each side's rating (no home edge applied at neutral sites); the favorite shown is simply the side above 50%.

The season so far, week by week

Week 2

Week 1

Current ratings, all 32

post-2025, after 33% preseason regression toward 1505 — the scale is relative (average ≈ 1505); a 100-point edge at a neutral site is about 64%. The same numbers, ranked with movement and tiers, live on the power rankings page.

The rules this page lives by

• Frozen means frozen. A published probability is never edited. Rebuilds can only attach results.
• A missed week stays missed. If a week's numbers weren't published before kickoff, that week shows no predictions — there is no such thing as a retroactive forecast.
• The bad weeks stay up. The season grade includes every game the model got wrong, on the same page, forever.
• Same engine everywhere. The script that generated the backtest is byte-for-byte the one that generates these numbers.

Sources: nflverse public game log bundled at data/games.csv; the model and ledger are generated by the site's build (nfl_elo.py) with no hand-entered numbers anywhere.