Enter the line of scrimmage; the calculator gives the kick distance (yards to the goal line + 18) and the chance an NFL kick of that length is good, from a model fitted on every 2021-2025 try.
By C. B. Zakarian · Published October 28, 2026
Take the yards from the line of scrimmage to the goal line and add 18: 10 yards of end zone, because the goalposts stand on the end line, and about 8 yards back to the spot of the hold. A try from the opponent's 30 is a 48-yard field goal. This calculator works out that distance and then the chance an NFL kick of that length goes in, from a model fitted on every regular-season field-goal try of 2021-2025.
Related: NFL field goal distance: yard-line table and make rates · 4th down calculator
The yard line is the line of scrimmage for the kick. The calculator opens on the opponent's 30, the worked example below.
kick distance = yards from the line of scrimmage to the goal line + 10 + hold depth
The chance is a logistic curve in the kick distance d, fitted on all 5,352 regular-season field-goal tries from 2021 to 2025 (4,556 made; blocked kicks count as misses):
chance = 1 / (1 + e−z), z = 6.0018 − 0.1027 d + 0.2592 x2 − 0.0793 x3, x = (d − 40) / 10
The squared and cubed terms let the curve fall gently through the 30s and 40s and then faster beyond about 60 yards, which is what the kicks themselves show. The chance falls with every added yard from 18 to 75 yards.
If you pick a stadium type, a second curve fitted on the same kicks adds a roof term: z = 5.9599 − 0.1038 d + 0.2564 x2 − 0.0787 x3 + 0.2814 for a dome or closed roof. At 48 yards, that term moves the chance from 75.0% outdoors to 79.9% indoors. (The calculator uses the coefficients to full precision; they are rounded here.)
| Line of scrimmage | Kick | Chance (not specified) | Outdoors | Dome | Made, 2021-2025 (within 2 yards) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent's 5 | 23 yards | 99.2% | 99.1% | 99.3% | 555 of 561 (98.9%) |
| Opponent's 10 | 28 yards | 97.4% | 97.2% | 97.9% | 666 of 685 (97.2%) |
| Opponent's 15 | 33 yards | 94.1% | 93.6% | 95.1% | 707 of 746 (94.8%) |
| Opponent's 20 | 38 yards | 89.2% | 88.3% | 90.9% | 682 of 754 (90.5%) |
| Opponent's 25 | 43 yards | 83.3% | 82.0% | 85.8% | 622 of 767 (81.1%) |
| Opponent's 30 | 48 yards | 76.8% | 75.0% | 79.9% | 559 of 737 (75.8%) |
| Opponent's 35 | 53 yards | 69.4% | 67.2% | 73.1% | 524 of 733 (71.5%) |
| Opponent's 40 | 58 yards | 60.4% | 57.7% | 64.4% | 158 of 255 (62.0%) |
| Opponent's 45 | 63 yards | 48.4% | 45.4% | 52.5% | 18 of 41 (43.9%) |
| Midfield | 68 yards | 33.4% | 30.6% | 36.9% | 3 of 10 (30.0%) |
The curve and the raw rates agree closely wherever there are hundreds of kicks to go on. Past the opponent's 40 the raw rates rest on few tries (41 within two yards of a 63-yarder, 10 of a 68-yarder), and the curve is the steadier guide.
Moving the ball five yards closer, to the 25, makes it a 43-yard kick at 83.3%; five yards further back, from the 35, a 53-yarder at 69.4%. The five yards closer add 6.5 points of make chance; the five yards back cost 7.4.
Every value in this section is the output of the calculator above, run with these inputs.
To test the curve on kicks it had not seen, the same model was fitted on 2021-2024 only (4,264 tries) and then asked about every 2025 try. Predicted and actual make rates, in five-yard groups with at least 30 tries:
| 2025 tries | Tries | Predicted | Made |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-24 yards | 74 | 99.3% | 98.7% |
| 25-29 yards | 132 | 97.8% | 97.7% |
| 30-34 yards | 143 | 94.6% | 97.2% |
| 35-39 yards | 156 | 90.0% | 89.1% |
| 40-44 yards | 162 | 83.9% | 85.2% |
| 45-49 yards | 151 | 77.7% | 83.4% |
| 50-54 yards | 152 | 70.2% | 72.4% |
| 55-59 yards | 92 | 61.3% | 66.3% |
Plain-English guides to the metrics, and the full code-first tutorial.
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