NFL EPA Calculator: Expected Points Added for Any Play

The EPA Calculator

The calculator opens on the first worked example below: 1st and 10 at your own 25, a 5-yard gain. For a penalty, enter the yards it moved the ball as the gain.

How the Calculator Works

EPA = EP after the play − EP before the play

• EP before comes from the down, the yards to go and the yard line you enter.
• EP after depends on the result. A gain moves the ball: reach the line to gain and it is 1st and 10 (1st and goal inside the 10); fall short and it is the next down with the yards still to go; fall short on 4th down and the other team takes over at the spot. A gain past the goal line is a touchdown, a loss behind your own goal line a safety.
• Scores and turnovers use fixed values or the other team's expected points, the same conventions nflverse's published EPA uses:

We checked those conventions against nflverse's own numbers on the 2025 regular season: on 29,884 pass and run plays the published EPA equals the next snap's EP minus this snap's, on 498 interceptions and lost fumbles it equals minus the other team's EP minus this snap's, and the 7, 3, −2 and −7 values hold on all 1,302 offensive touchdowns, 928 made field goals, 42 defensive touchdowns and 43 safeties (2021-2025), every one to within 0.01.

The Expected Points Table

The EP values are the average of nflverse's published expected points over every regular-season snap of 2021-2025 in the same down, distance and yard line: 183,494 snaps (passes, runs, punts and field-goal tries; kneel-downs, spikes and two-point tries left out). The averages are smoothed across neighbouring yard lines and distances, so a rare situation such as 4th and 15 at your own 3 borrows from the situations around it. A sample of the table:

Two patterns carry most of EPA. Field position: a first down is worth about 0.17 points at your own 10 and 4.98 at the opponent's 10. Down: at midfield, a 3rd and 8 is worth 1.35 and a 4th and 1 only 0.60, because a failed fourth down hands the other team good field position.

Worked Examples

• A 5-yard gain on 1st and 10 at your own 25. Before: 1.08 EP. After: 2nd and 5 at your own 30, 1.15 EP. EPA = 1.15 − 1.08 = +0.07. An incomplete pass instead leaves 2nd and 10 at the 25, 0.52 EP: −0.56.
• 3rd and 8 at midfield. Before: 1.35 EP. A 9-yard completion gives 1st and 10 at the opponent's 41, 3.13 EP: +1.78. An incompletion leaves 4th and 8 at midfield, −0.19 EP: −1.54. An interception with the other team taking over at their own 30 is worth minus their 1.40: −2.75.
• 4th and 1 at midfield. Before: 0.60 EP. Convert by a yard and it is 1st and 10 at the opponent's 49, 2.66 EP: +2.06. Get stopped for no gain and the other team has 1st and 10 at midfield, minus 2.60: −3.19. A punt downed at their own 15 is minus their 0.44: −1.04.
• A touchdown from the opponent's 25. Before: 1st and 10 there is worth 4.20 EP. After: 7. EPA = 7 − 4.20 = +2.80.

Every value in this section is the output of the calculator above, run with these inputs; differences in the last digit come from rounding the two EP values for display.

How Close It Comes to nflverse's EPA

nflverse's expected points model also knows the clock, the score, the timeouts left and the stadium; this calculator knows only down, distance and yard line. To see what that costs, we fitted the same table on 2021-2024 only and scored every 2025 regular-season pass and run play with it, then compared the result with nflverse's published EPA for the same plays:

• The direction is almost always right. When nflverse's EPA for a 2025 play was bigger than 0.25 either way, the calculator gave the same sign on 99.6% of them. The median gap is 0.09 points.
• The next snap is predicted correctly. On 29,884 plain gains in 2025, the down, distance and yard line the calculator moves to matched the next snap in the play-by-play 99.9% of the time.
• Turnovers are the loosest. The average gap is 0.14 on gains and 0.20 on touchdowns, but 0.41 on interceptions and lost fumbles, where the clock and the score matter most to what the other team's possession is worth.
• Single snaps. Against nflverse's EP on each 2025 snap (not the change), the table is off by 0.25 points on average (correlation 0.978); the raw 2021-2024 averages without smoothing were off by 0.26.

Limits

• No clock, no score. A 1st and 10 at your own 25 with 20 seconds left in the half is worth far less than the 1.08 average. For end-of-half and late-game decisions, win probability is the better guide: try the win probability calculator.
• Smoothing moves a few numbers. The raw 2025 average for 1st and 10 at your own 25 was 1.16 (the figure in our expected points explainer); the smoothed 2021-2025 table gives 1.08. Over 2021-2025 the raw own-25 average is 1.12 but the own 24 averages 0.89, and a smooth surface cannot jump that sharply between neighbouring yard lines.
• Penalties are not modelled. Enter the yards a penalty moved the ball as the gain; an automatic first down from a defensive penalty is not covered.
• Different from our other tools. The 4th down calculator and the expected-points card on the tools page use their own simpler curves, so their EP numbers differ from this table.
• A league average. The table describes an average offense against an average defense in 2021-2025.

Sources and Further Reading

• The plays and the published EP and EPA: nflverse play-by-play, regular seasons 2021-2025 and 2026 through October 22, pulled October 24, 2026.
• How EPA Is Calculated, the formula with real plays
• Expected Points (EP) Explained
• EPA vs DVOA
• 4th Down Calculator: go for it, kick or punt
• All NFL calculators