The date, the stadium and the TV network from official sources, then every team’s chance to reach and win Super Bowl LXI from 20,000 simulated seasons, updated as games are played, and what 27 Super Bowls say about who wins it.
By C. B. Zakarian · Published November 14, 2026
Super Bowl LXI is on Sunday, , at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. It decides the champion of the 2026 NFL season, the 61st Super Bowl. It is the second Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium: the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI there on February 13, 2022, in their own stadium.
Who is most likely to get there? In our simulation of the rest of the season, the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LXI most often, in 25.6% of 20,000 simulated seasons, with results through (137 of 272 regular-season games played). Every team’s chance is below.
Updated with every build. Results through : 137 of 272 regular-season games played, 135 left. Same 20,000 simulated seasons as our playoff chances page, then the playoffs played out.
The Buffalo Bills have the best chance to win it, 25.6%, and reach it in 39.6% of the simulated seasons. The likeliest Super Bowl LXI teams by conference are the Buffalo Bills (39.6% to win the AFC) and the San Francisco 49ers (29.9% to win the NFC). The top five, Bills, 49ers, Broncos, Jaguars and Bears, win it in 68.5% of the seasons between them; 19 teams are under 1%, and 7 never won it in any of the 20,000 runs. A No. 1 seed won the simulated Super Bowl in 41.7% of seasons.
| # | Team | Conf | Record | Elo | Playoffs % | Conf. title game % | Reach SB % | Win SB % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | AFC | 7–1 | 1706 | 99.9 | 60.9 | 39.6 | 25.6 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | NFC | 7–1 | 1636 | 97.1 | 49.7 | 29.9 | 14.1 |
| 3 | Denver Broncos | AFC | 7–2 | 1650 | 99.4 | 41.2 | 20.5 | 11.1 |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC | 6–2 | 1644 | 99.1 | 37.3 | 17.8 | 9.8 |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | NFC | 7–2 | 1624 | 85.8 | 32.4 | 17.3 | 8.0 |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | NFC | 6–2 | 1600 | 81.2 | 26.5 | 13.1 | 5.5 |
| 7 | Minnesota Vikings | NFC | 6–2 | 1593 | 83.7 | 27.2 | 13.0 | 5.3 |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | NFC | 5–4 | 1645 | 57.1 | 18.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | AFC | 6–2 | 1583 | 96.1 | 21.8 | 8.4 | 3.8 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC | 6–2 | 1576 | 90.7 | 15.2 | 5.8 | 2.6 |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | NFC | 6–3 | 1583 | 57.1 | 14.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Rams | NFC | 5–4 | 1612 | 36.5 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | AFC | 6–2 | 1574 | 89.1 | 13.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 |
| 14 | New England Patriots | AFC | 5–4 | 1564 | 53.9 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC | 3–6 | 1491 | 40.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 16 | New York Giants | NFC | 5–3–1 | 1462 | 63.9 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 17 | Houston Texans | AFC | 3–5 | 1549 | 23.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 18 | Dallas Cowboys | NFC | 4–5 | 1468 | 24.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 19 | New Orleans Saints | NFC | 3–5 | 1410 | 21.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 20 | Carolina Panthers | NFC | 3–5 | 1421 | 20.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 21 | Washington Commanders | NFC | 3–5–1 | 1442 | 12.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Atlanta Falcons | NFC | 3–6 | 1435 | 17.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 23 | Cleveland Browns | AFC | 5–4 | 1436 | 29.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 24 | Baltimore Ravens | AFC | 4–5 | 1487 | 15.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 25 | Las Vegas Raiders | AFC | 4–5 | 1402 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 26 | Philadelphia Eagles | NFC | 2–7 | 1415 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 27 | Arizona Cardinals | NFC | 3–6 | 1381 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts | AFC | 2–7 | 1393 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 29 | Los Angeles Chargers | AFC | 0–8 | 1385 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 30 | Miami Dolphins | AFC | 1–7 | 1366 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 31 | New York Jets | AFC | 2–7 | 1332 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 32 | Tennessee Titans | AFC | 1–7 | 1296 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The likeliest matchups (AFC team first), share of the 20,000 seasons:
Every Super Bowl in our game log, from the 1999 season to the 2025 season (27 games), counted from the results file itself.
| Season | Game | Champion, score | Champion’s record | After Week 9 (league rank) | Best record? | Stadium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | LX | Seahawks 29-13 Patriots | 14-3 | 6-2 (4) | yes | Levi's Stadium |
| 2024 | LIX | Eagles 40-22 Chiefs | 14-3 | 6-2 (5) | no | Mercedes-Benz Superdome |
| 2023 | LVIII | Chiefs 25-22 49ers | 11-6 | 7-2 (2) | no | Allegiant Stadium |
| 2022 | LVII | Chiefs 38-35 Eagles | 14-3 | 6-2 (3) | yes | State Farm Stadium |
| 2021 | LVI | Rams 23-20 Bengals | 12-5 | 7-2 (2) | no | SoFi Stadium |
| 2020 | LV | Buccaneers 31-9 Chiefs | 11-5 | 6-3 (9) | no | Raymond James Stadium |
| 2019 | LIV | Chiefs 31-20 49ers | 12-4 | 6-3 (8) | no | Hard Rock Stadium |
| 2018 | LIII | Patriots 13-3 Rams | 11-5 | 7-2 (4) | no | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |
| 2017 | LII | Eagles 41-33 Patriots | 13-3 | 8-1 (1) | yes | U.S. Bank Stadium |
| 2016 | LI | Patriots 34-28 Falcons | 14-2 | 7-1 (1) | yes | NRG Stadium |
| 2015 | L | Broncos 24-10 Panthers | 12-4 | 7-1 (4) | no | Levi's Stadium |
| 2014 | XLIX | Patriots 28-24 Seahawks | 12-4 | 7-2 (2) | yes | University of Phoenix Stadium |
| 2013 | XLVIII | Seahawks 43-8 Broncos | 13-3 | 8-1 (2) | yes | MetLife Stadium |
| 2012 | XLVII | Ravens 34-31 49ers | 10-6 | 6-2 (4) | no | Mercedes-Benz Superdome |
| 2011 | XLVI | Giants 21-17 Patriots | 9-7 | 6-2 (3) | no | Lucas Oil Stadium |
| 2010 | XLV | Packers 31-25 Steelers | 10-6 | 6-3 (7) | no | Cowboys Stadium |
| 2009 | XLIV | Saints 31-17 Colts | 13-3 | 8-0 (1) | no | Dolphin Stadium |
| 2008 | XLIII | Steelers 27-23 Cardinals | 12-4 | 6-2 (3) | no | Raymond James Stadium |
| 2007 | XLII | Giants 17-14 Patriots | 10-6 | 6-2 (5) | no | University of Phoenix Stadium |
| 2006 | XLI | Colts 29-17 Bears | 12-4 | 8-0 (1) | no | Dolphin Stadium |
| 2005 | XL | Steelers 21-10 Seahawks | 11-5 | 6-2 (3) | no | Ford Field |
| 2004 | XXXIX | Patriots 24-21 Eagles | 14-2 | 7-1 (1) | no | Alltel Stadium |
| 2003 | XXXVIII | Patriots 32-29 Panthers | 14-2 | 7-2 (3) | yes | Reliant Stadium |
| 2002 | XXXVII | Buccaneers 48-21 Raiders | 12-4 | 7-2 (2) | yes | Qualcomm Stadium |
| 2001 | XXXVI | Patriots 20-17 Rams | 11-5 | 5-4 (11) | no | Louisiana Superdome |
| 2000 | XXXV | Ravens 34-7 Giants | 12-4 | 5-4 (14) | no | Raymond James Stadium |
| 1999 | XXXIV | Rams 23-16 Titans | 13-3 | 6-2 (3) | no | Georgia Dome |
Records and ranks are from the regular-season results in the nflverse game log (data/games.csv); a rank counts the teams with a strictly better winning percentage, so tied teams share a rank. See also playoff football by the numbers.
The date, stadium and city come from the league itself: the NFL's list of 2026-27 important dates ("February 14 - Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)") and the same entry on NFL Football Operations' calendar, both read again on November 14, 2026. The network comes from ESPN's own press releases: the August 19, 2026 coverage release ("Super Bowl LXI across ESPN and ABC") and the September 8, 2026 ManningCast release. None of the four gives a kickoff time, so this page gives none.
The chances are the site's own model, not a forecast from anyone else: the Elo ratings on the power rankings page, the season simulation behind the playoff chances page, and a playoff bracket played with the NFL's seeding format. They change only when a game is played. The history uses the nflverse game log the site serves at data/games.csv, 1999 onward, so it starts with Super Bowl XXXIV.
This page is the site's Super Bowl page for the 2026 season. Once the conference championship games are played on January 31, 2027, it will be updated with the matchup, and after February 14 with the result.
Related: NFL key dates 2026-27 · NFL playoff chances 2026 · playoff picker · 2026 standings · does the best record win it? · the Super Bowl rematch effect
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